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<small>> With the British referendum on European Union (EU)
membership on 23 June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos
reveals that half (49%) of Europeans in eight other EU countries
believe that Britain will vote to leave the EU. The survey is
published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann
declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe,
viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union. </small>
<p><small>The survey of between 500 and 1,000 online adults aged
under 65 in Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland,
Spain and Sweden (plus Britain and five non-European countries),
finds 49%<sup>1</sup> of Europeans think Britain will vote to
leave the EU.<strong> Between them, the nine EU countries
surveyed represent around three-quarters of the EU population
and approximately 80% of its GDP.</strong> This figure varies
between a majority in Italy and France (60% and 58%
respectively) thinking that Britain will vote to leave, to 42%
in Germany. <strong>In Great Britain itself the number of
people who believe that the Brexit vote will prevail is in a
minority</strong> – 35% of Britons think that Britain will
vote to leave the EU. </small></p>
<small> </small>
<p><small>Views outside the EU, in North American (Canada and the
US) and three major Commonwealth countries (India, Australia and
South Africa), are closer to those of Britons. Across those five
countries, 38% think that Britain will vote to leave the EU.<br>
</small></p>
<small><strong>Almost half (45%) of Europeans in the researched
countries think their own country should hold a referendum on
its EU membership. </strong>Again support for a referendum
varies, though is never lower than four in ten, from 38% in
Hungary to majorities in Italy and France (58% and 55%). </small>
<p><small>When asked how they would vote if a referendum on their
country’s EU membership was held now, <strong>a third of
Europeans in the selected countries say they would vote for
their country to leave the EU.</strong> However, this figure
differs markedly among the researched EU countries – almost half
(48%) of Italians and roughly four in ten Frenchmen and Swedes
(41% and 39% respectively) say they would vote “out†in a
referendum on the EU in their country; in comparison, just one
in five (22%) Poles would vote for their country to leave the EU
if a referendum was organised now.</small></p>
<small><strong>The idea that ‘Brexit’ might start a domino effect
with other countries then leaving the EU is shared by around
half (48%) of those in the researched EU countries,</strong> and
is only slightly less prevalent in countries outside the EU (42%).
This is a widely held expectation in Hungary, Sweden, Italy and
Germany, of the European countries. But in every country more
people agree a domino effect is likely than disagree.</small><small><strong><br>
<br>
When asked about the potential impact of Brexit on Britain and
the EU, people are more likely to think the latter will lose
out. </strong>Half of Europeans think Brexit would have a
negative impact on the EU's economy and for the EU's influence on
the world stage (51% and 48% respectively). In comparison, less
than two in five think that Brexit would be negative for Britain's
economy or position on the world stage (36% and 38% respectively).
Indeed, in five countries people think leaving the EU would
actually have a net positive impact on Britain’s economy (India,
Italy, Poland, South Africa and the United States), although only
two out of the 14 countries (India and the US) think it would have
a net positive impact on Britain’s influence on world affairs.</small>
<small> </small>
<p><small>Finally, the survey shows that<strong> four in ten (40%)
across the European countries surveyed think that there will
be a reduced EU by 2020</strong> - either with less
integration or having been disbanded altogether, although only
11% foresee this more dramatic scenario. Four in ten (43%) want
their countries to work towards reducing the scope of the EU to
some extent. </small></p>
<small> </small>
<p><small>However, those who want a more federal Europe are more
pessimistic about their prospects. While again four in ten (39%)
want their countries to have a long-term policy of either a more
integrated Europe or even a single European government (although
once more only 15% want this more extreme option), on average
only two in ten (21%) think there will be a more federal Europe
by 2020. Rather, 39% believe that in 2020 the EU will be the
same as today’s version, with the same balance of powers between
the EU and individual countries (even though only 18% want their
countries to pursue this status quo option).<br>
</small></p>
<small><strong>Bobby Duffy</strong>, MD, Ipsos MORI Social Research
Institute, said:</small> <small> </small>
<blockquote><small>“The opinion polls are indicating a close race as
we approach 23 June – but this new study shows Brits are the
most convinced of all that Brexit isn’t going to happen. Having
heard so much about ‘Project Fear’, and the risks of leaving,
it’s interesting to see that internationally, the more common
view is that the UK would suffer less than the EU from the break
up. For Europeans, this possibly flows from their feelings about
their own country’s relationship with the EU – they tend to feel
there is likely to be a ripple effect following the UK vote. The
Italians in particular hope to have their own opportunity to go
to the polls on their EU membership – which lends a sense that
even if the vote is to stick with the status quo in June, it
will not be the end of the EU’s challenges.â€<</small></blockquote>
<small><br>
</small><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3731/Half-of-people-in-nine-European-countries-believe-UK-will-vote-to-leave-the-EU.aspx">https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3731/Half-of-people-in-nine-European-countries-believe-UK-will-vote-to-leave-the-EU.aspx</a><br>
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