NP Stimulate this

Terrance lycidas2 at earthlink.net
Thu Nov 1 12:09:22 CST 2001


This BS about a stimulus package is so typical of Washington and the
media--party politics as usual. First off, it's so small (1%) it won't
have any impact. Second, you can't stimulate a consumer driven economy
with these measures. Third, you can't give a quick boost or stimulate a
mature economy like the one in the USA. Fourth, the USA was in a
recession prior to the attacks. Bush inherited a recession from Clinton
and Greenspan, keenly aware of this, cut interest rates eight times this
year to limit the recession and get the economy back in the black, but
it takes time for these rate cuts to work. The big news and the real
boom to corporations is the USA announcement that it will not issue 39
year bonds. This is worth more than 8 cuts and 10 stimulus packages. 
W/O the USA benchmark 30 year bond crowding out the long end of the
yield curve the corporations will be able to float paper out there at
lower interest rates. Also, the USA is going to start buying Corporate
debt for obligations or to match liabilities that it previously matched
only with USA government guaranteed debt. So, there will less supply.
There will higher demand. Bond prices will go up (they normally go up
during times of economic decline or recession as inflation goes down and
prices have an inverse relationship to yields or rates). When Bond
prices go up, yields or rates drop. Money becomes easier. Since consumer
rates are based on the benchmark or the long bond (although there are
many other variables too complicated to gop into), consumer rates will
drop. There's your stimulus package. Lower AMT, lower capital gains,
none of these things will stimulate the economy or create new jobs.
Neither would a tax break for the working class. Unless it was huge.
This decision not to issue Long Bonds is HUGE! 

PS It will cost thousands of jobs on Wall Street and in Chicago and
around the globe. 
As they say on the Street, "you've been buggy whipped boys, good luck."



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