SARS UPDATE

[Mutualcode at aol.com]

If SARS turns up in Bagdad, the war will soon grind to a halt.
This virus, although only slightly more virulent than a bad
strain of influenza- mortality rate of about 4%- is worse in
several respects. 1) There are effective vaccines against
influenza 2) There are several effective chemo-prophylactic
and treatment regimens against the flu.

These are not yet available for SARS, and being a corona
virus, it is very contagious, at least as as much as the
common cold, and probably more so. Although only about 10%
of victims seem to require intensive care, artificial ventilation,
etc., this could still be a devastating epidemic. Imagine if 10%
of all common cold victims required intensive care- these services
would soon be overwhelmed- there would no resources left for any
of the other myriad diseases requiring ICU admission- it would be 
the kudzu of contagious disease. Mortality from all causes would 
increase, and, since health care providers- as in ebola- are one of 
the prime targets of attack, resources would be even further 
stretched.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the advent of warmer weather might
slow SARS down, as we see with the flu. But that still leaves the
Southern Hemisphere, and, even if the virus becomes dormant in 
the Northern climes, what will next winter bring- perhaps SARS II,
III, etc. The cat is out of the bag.

It has been heartening to see such global cooperation (except, 
initially, from the Chinese) in the battle against this new virus.
It is unprecedented. Although, from an evolutionary-biological
point of view, it is just such globalization that has allowed the
virus to spread so quickly, before mutating into a less harmful
strain. In many ways, like H.I.V., it is a disease of modernity
(or postmodernity), if you will. It is also a reminder that it is no
longer possible to continue with "bizness as usual." We are one
world, now, for better or worse, and we're going to have to learn
to cooperate.

respectfully (and anxiously)
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