Iraq

[pynchonoid]

"jbor" <jbor at bigpond.com>
>He's
>got about a week.

Stop drooling.  You sound like chickenhawk Bush
smirking over the success of those assassination, 
during his State of the Onion speech. 

How many more innocent Iraqis does the US need to kill
before you'll feel safe?  



" [...] I do not think that the war, if there is a
war, will fail. I can easily envisage the publication
soon of some chilling facts about Saddam’s armoury, a
French and German scamper back into the fold, a tough
UN second resolution, a short and successful war, a
handover to a better government, a discreet change of
tune in the biddable part of the Arab world, and egg
all over the peaceniks’ faces. 

I am not afraid that this war will fail. I am afraid
that it will succeed. 

I am afraid that it will prove to be the first in an
indefinite series of American interventions. I am
afraid that it is the beginning of a new empire: an
empire that I am afraid Britain may have little choice
but to join. "

from: 
A dove's guide: how to be an honest critic of the war
Matthew Parris
<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-152-561996,00.html>


"[...] For all of the diversity in the region, there
is a common geopolitical theme. If the U.S. invasion
is successful, Washington intends to occupy Iraq
militarily, and it officially expects to remain there
for at least 18 months -- or to be more honest,
indefinitely. The United States will build air bases
and deploy substantial ground forces -- and, rather
than permit the disintegration of Iraq, will create a
puppet government underwritten by U.S. power.

On the day the war ends, and if the United States is
victorious, then the entire geopolitics of the region
will be redefined. Every country bordering Iraq will
find not the weakest formations of the Iraqi army
along their frontiers, but U.S. and British troops.
The United States will be able to reach into any
country in the region with covert forces based in
Iraq, and Washington could threaten overt
interventions as well. It would need no permission
from regional hosts for the use of facilities, so long

as either Turkey or Kuwait will permit transshipment
into Iraq. In short, a U.S. victory will change the
entire balance of power in the region, from a
situation in which the United States must negotiate
its way to war, to a situation where the United States

is free to act as it will.

Consider the condition of Syria. It might not have
good relations with Hussein's Iraq, but a
U.S.-occupied Iraq would be Syria's worst nightmare.
It would be surrounded on all sides by real or
potential enemies -- Israel, Turkey, Jordan and the
United States - and, in the Mediterranean, by the U.S.
Sixth Fleet. Syria -- which traditionally has played a
subtle, complex balancing game between various powers
-- would find itself in a vise, no longer able to
guarantee its national security except through
accommodating the United States.

A similar situation is shaping up for Saudi Arabia.
The United States is operating extensively in Yemen;
it also has air force facilities in Qatar and naval
facilities in Bahrain. U.S. B-1 bombers and some
personnel are going to be based in Oman. The United
States has established itself along the littoral of
the Arabian peninsula. With U.S. forces deployed along
the Saudi- Iraqi border, and with U.S. domination of
the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, the Saudis will be in
essence surrounded.

The same basic problem exists for Iran, although on a
less threatening scale. Iran is larger, more populated
and more difficult to intimidate. Nevertheless, with
at least some U.S. forces in Afghanistan -- and the
option for introducing more always open -- and U.S.
forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf, the Iranians too
find themselves surrounded, albeit far less
overwhelmingly than would be the case for Syria or
Saudi Arabia.

The only probable winners would be Turkey, which would
lay claim to the oil fields around Mosul and Kirkuk;
Jordan, whose security would be enhanced by U.S.
forces to the east; and Kuwait, which is betting
heavily on a quick U.S. victory and a prolonged 
presence in the region.

If we consider the post-Iraq war world, it is no
surprise that the regional response ranges from
publicly opposed and privately not displeased to
absolute opposition. Certainly, Syria, Saudi Arabia
and Iran have nothing to gain from a war that will be 
shaped entirely by the United States. Each understands
that the pressure from the United States to cooperate
in the war against al Qaeda will be overwhelming,
potentially irresistible and politically
destabilizing. This is not the world in which they 
want to live. [...] The United States is, of course,
well-aware that its increased presence in the region
will result in greater hostility and increased
paramilitary activity against U.S. forces there.
However, the U.S. view is that this rising cost is
acceptable so long as Washington is able to redefine
the behavior of countries neighboring Iraq. In the
long run, the Bush administration believes,
geopolitical power will improve U.S. security
interests in spite of growing threats. To be more
precise, the United States sees Islamic hostility at a
certain level as a given, and does not regard an
increase in that hostility as materially affecting its
interests. 

The conquest of Iraq will not be a minor event in
history: It will represent the introduction of a new
imperial power to the Middle East and a redefinition
of regional geopolitics based on that power. The
United States will move from being an outside power
influencing events through coalitions, to a regional
power that is able to operate effectively on its own.
Most significant, countries like Saudi Arabia and
Syria will be living in a new and quite unpleasant
world.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the
regional powers are behaving as they are. The
disintegration of the European bloc has, however, left
them in an untenable position. The United States will
occupy Iraq, and each regional power is now facing
that reality. Unable to block the process, they are 
reluctantly and unhappily finding ways to accustom
themselves to it. "

from:
Stratfor Weekly: The Region After Iraq
by  Dr. George Friedman
http://www.stratfor.com
Strategic Forecasting, LLC

...enjoy!

-Doug



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<http://www.pynchonoid.blogspot.com/>

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