The real business of the war is all theatre/theater

R. Fiero rfiero at pophost.com
Sat Sep 11 12:25:07 CDT 2004


Terrance wrote:
>Rather than rely on a great fairy tale (i.e., GR)  for 
>information about how war affects defense companies, I 
>suggest  you pick a public defense company (i.e., Boeing, NYSE 
>symbol BA) and paper trade its stock and bonds for 3 months 
>(1/4).  In other words, pretend you have just purchased 
>1,000,000 shares of Boeing stock and 50,000 Boeing bonds or 
>$50, 000, 000 of BA stock and $50, 000, 000 of BA bonds (a 
>position any big portfolio manager in the USA might hold today).

With airlines going bankrupt which they would do anyway if the 
price of fuel was zero, Boeing might not be a great bet.

>You'll want to check the historical charts to find out how 
>wars (hot and cold) influence profits at BA.
>
>Just my advice, and it's free, a real investor, a very good 
>investor, is a long term investor. And real investors sell 
>defense stocks during times of war.
>
>Peace and Prosperity,
>
>Jane

That defense stocks are sold during wars would indicate that 
stocks have risen in price and shareholders are taking profits 
and selling off to new suckers.

Buy and hold doesn't work unless your name is Warren 
Buffett.  Fund managers now keep a company for ten months on 
average in order to get the short-term performance they need to 
keep their jobs. Buy an index fund unless one can actually admit to gambling.

The money is probably in science-managing Poklers and 
consolidating corporate positions. 




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