Very P (GR) : a Cornell psychologist and "random" bombs

Mark Kohut markekohut at yahoo.com
Sun Feb 22 16:42:20 CST 2009


"A less trivial example [of representativeness], from the Cornell psychologist
Tom Gilovich (1991), comes from the experience of London residents during the German
bombing campaigns of WW II. London newspapers published maps, such as the one shown in figure 1.3
[sorry, cannot scan], displaying the location of the strikes from German V-1 and V-2 missiles that
landed in central London. As you can see, [trust it or check it out], the pattern does not seem at all random. 
Bombs appear to be clustered around the River Thames and also in the northwest sector of the map.
People in London expressed concern at the time because the pattern seemed to suggest that the 
Germans could aim their bombs with great precision. Some Londoners even speculated that the blank
spaces were probably the neighborhhoods where German spies lived. They were wrong. In fact the Germans
could do no better than aim their bombs at Central London and hope for the best. A detailed statistical 
analysis of of the dispersion of the location of the bomb strikes determined that within London the distribution
of the bomb strikes was indeed random. "---------Nudge, Yale U press, pp.27-28.

He goes on to say if the area is turned into different quadrants by creating 4 triangles with lines from upper left corner to lower right and lower left to upper right, then the bomb strikes DO LOOK random. True. 

[Or the map, which is not the territory, is not the only map which is not the territory, so to speak]. 


      




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