Alexei Kudrin on Ukraine

[alice malice]

 How Putin Forged a Pipeline Deal That Derailed


In Today's NY Times

On Wed, Dec 31, 2014 at 7:01 AM, alice malice <alicewmalice at gmail.com> wrote:
> Two keys to the resolution of the Ukraine conflict. I have a better
> handle on oil than on the Russian people, and, obviously, my handle on
> oil is as slippery as anybody's grip on energy prices, but my guess is
> that oil prices will continue to fall and that they will stay in a
> range (WTI $65-35) that punishes Russia. The price now, like most
> other commodities, while still in greater demand, though that demand
> increase has slowed considerably, is weighed down by a supply glut, by
> production capacity that is not shrinking even at these price levels.
> So, the bubble in oil is still deflating. My guess is that these price
> levels, even if China starts growing at 9 or 10% again, not likely,
> and even if the US grows at 5% in the next 2 years, are still too high
> and lower prices will be, a new normal, the norm for at least a
> decade, if not longer. America has no real energy policy, so you never
> know for sure, but it looks like America's non-plan is on track to
> continue increasing production and reducing its demand. We shall see
> how that works out if American lifts its ban on crude exports and if
> the go-green shoots get mowed over by cheaper energy.But I think the
> Saudis have lost a lot of American market share to American Shale &
> Co. and is not going to win it back at these prices. So we're going
> lower. And we may stay down for a long time.
>
>
>  How will Europe deal with Russia and its dependency on Russian
> energy? Well, first they need to get prop up their economy, and it
> looks like the Central Bank will do that next year. Russia could send
> Europe right back down with a hike in energy costs or sanctions, so
> it's a gambit in Europe more so than in the US, and if Putin, to win
> hearts and patriots, does something dumber than the dumb things he's
> done thus far, it could be a long stalemate over there, sanctions on
> sanctions etc.
>
> But, I suspect that Putin will give in, or better, his men will, and
> they will mend fences with Europe and in time with America. Russia has
> little choice in the matter. The Market is far too powerful a force,
> and its getting stronger as Russia gets weaker.
>
>
> But my crystal ball is cracked ina million places, so....just cosmic debris.
>
> On Tue, Dec 30, 2014 at 1:27 PM, Mark Thibodeau <jerkyleboeuf at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Oil prices will go up. It's inevitable. If anyone can hang on, it's the
>> Russians.
>>
>> Not that I have a dog in this fight. Aside from not wanting to see World War
>> III.
>>
>> Jerky
>>
>> On Tue, Dec 30, 2014 at 8:58 AM, alice malice <alicewmalice at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Some here claim that Putin has done a good job for the Russian people,
>>> that their standards of living have improved, but the irresponsible
>>> management of Russia's economy, too heavily dependent on energy
>>> revenue, has left her vulnerable to market risk, the price of oil, and
>>> the military escursions and the costs of these, including, now
>>> sanctions, hardly supports the argument that Putin is a man of the
>>> people. Moreover, his popularity will fade with the economy and the
>>> protests that he faced may return, though Putin has and probably will
>>> do everything to prevent them. Unfortunately, he can do little to
>>> fight off capital flight, a free fall in oil and the currency, so his
>>> everything will be more repression and violence against citizens.
>>>
>>>
>>> Alexei Kudrin, is the former deputy prime minister and may still have
>>> some influence on Putin. He has consistently called for economic
>>> reform, reforms that must also include independent courts and a legal
>>> system that guarantees property rights; competitive, free, and fair
>>> elections; a substantial, freely operating, and responsible political
>>> opposition as a permanent element of national politics; and state
>>> accountability to society.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> from a brief in Reuters today by Darya Korsunskaya and Elena Fabrichnaya
>>>
>>>
>>> n December 2008, oil fell during the global financial crisis to around
>>> $36 but even then Russia did not reinstate capital controls.
>>>
>>> "This crisis is more psychological, more emotional than those we have
>>> seen in the past. But in principle, the situation is not very
>>> different from 2008. We can always switch to measures we used in
>>> 2009," the source said, naming state guarantees and direct funding of
>>> troubled companies among possible measures.
>>>
>>> However, former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said the current crisis
>>> was different because of the sanctions. "To come out of the crisis,
>>> the government and the president should settle the conflict with
>>> leading powers, mainly Europe and the United States," he said last
>>> week.
>>>
>>> However, the top-level government source held out little hope for an
>>> easing of tensions with Washington. "Relations with the United States
>>> are frozen," he said. ($1 = 56.2950 roubles)
>>> -
>>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>
>>
-
Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l