Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[ish mailian]

Productivity is the real puzzle. We don't understand what's happening.
It may be that the data is bad and that we need new measures or it may
be a combination of factors. Investment seems to be the answer for
now. But what to invest in and how. Trump's plan is still only a vague
pro-business plan that will include some of Ryan's plan plus Tweets.
How do you increase it without immigration and without investing in
education and training and welfare to transition workers from lost
wages in manufacturing (lost to trade in part but more so to
technology) to jobs in the knowledge economy?

On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> wrote:
> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market; no one
> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>
> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.  Nada.
> Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism seem to have a
> deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>
> No one knows anything.
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the future
> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are they going
> to handle inflation?
>
> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>>
>>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>>
>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>>
>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>>
>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>> predict the future.
>>
>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>> attention to Trump.
>>
>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
>> on.
>>
>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>>
>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>>
>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be
>> > paying
>> > attention to here in the states?
>> >
>> >
>> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>> -
>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>
>
-
Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l