Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

Becky Lindroos bekah0176 at sbcglobal.net
Mon Jan 16 07:53:20 CST 2017 

Malaise is not the problem. 

"Instead of immigrants, automation may take away more jobs"
 
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/56563837.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppsthttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/instead-of-immigrants-automation-may-take-away-more-jobs/articleshow/56563837.cms

OR: 
http://tinyurl.com/z97on33

It doesn’t matter what country the industry locates in - automation will come.  Even in trucking and business billing and things beyond manufacturing are now being done by robots and apps or even AI.   

Becky 


> On Jan 16, 2017, at 5:30 AM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Call it whatever you want the Millennial Problem is worth paying attention to.
> 
> Read the report from the left-leaning Center for American Progress and
> consider the solutions they propose, solutions that (for example, join
> a union), given the recent victory of the business class, are absurd
> and impractical.
> 
> What should be helping the M-generation isn't.
> 
> 
> "Education and skyrocketing productivity are often thought of as two
> of the most reliable ways for a cohort of workers’ compensation to
> increase, but neither is helping Millennials much. More than that,
> earnings early in one’s career can greatly influence the arc of
> earnings later on, which doesn’t bode well for the current generation
> of young adults."
> 
> But what is the problem?
> 
> Malaise is defined by the AHD as a problem or whose exact cause is
> difficult to identify
> 
> On Mon, Jan 9, 2017 at 9:09 PM, Chase Carnot <chase.carnot at gmail.com> wrote:
>> No problem. I was trying to soften my response but it still came off more
>> aggressive than I intended.
>> 
>> On Mon, Jan 9, 2017 at 5:23 AM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Chase,
>>> I agree with all that you say here. I didn't intend to malign a group or
>>> generation and I understand why someone might think I did.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> On Sunday, January 8, 2017, Chase Carnot <chase.carnot at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> 
>>>> The "malaise of the millennials" has a nice ring to it. But the only
>>>> truth in it is that every 'generation' maligns the next. Maybe millennials
>>>> would be more productive (many are quite productive, in fact) if they
>>>> weren't dealing with the failed economic policies of the seemingly-endless
>>>> Reagan Era (see Political Realignment Theory and Political Time Theory). Of
>>>> course, that's actually speaks to your point about inflation. Sorry, but
>>>> generational antagonism always bothers me, it being a subtle form of
>>>> reactionaryism.
>>>> 
>>>> (In the interest of full disclosure: I was born in 1985, which makes me a
>>>> millennial at last check. Never mind the fact that for as little as I have
>>>> in common with someone born in 1980, I have far less in common with someone
>>>> born in 2000. The arbitrary nature of all dividing lines, it was ever thus.)
>>>> 
>>>> https://www.wired.com/2014/01/thompson_generation/
>>>> https://xkcd.com/1227/
>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HFwok9SlQQ
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 1:04 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> 
>>>>> That it has taken so long and that such drastic, unprecedented
>>>>> monetary policies have been used with only limited success suggests
>>>>> that the force of deflation across Japan, Europe, the US and elsewhere
>>>>> was quite powerful.
>>>>> 
>>>>> An underestimated deflationary force. The first great depression of
>>>>> the century.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Of course the policy response to it form the central banks was often
>>>>> undermined by counterproductive and destructive fiscal
>>>>> policies--austerity.
>>>>> 
>>>>> That is where, of course, liberals will focus their critiques, but so
>>>>> much of the force of deflation can be traced directly to China and to
>>>>> automation and productivity stagnation.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Trump & Co. are on to it.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Other factors, such as demographics, aging populations,  the general
>>>>> malaise of the millennials and the late late late capital glut, supply
>>>>> and exhausted demand are important too.
>>>>> 
>>>>> The fear of immigrants in places like Japan is also a factor.
>>>>> 
>>>>> In Germany, that belief that in the cult of prudence and work as
>>>>> opposed to the club-med cult of Greece and the PIIGS....is also a
>>>>> factor. Politics is a factor and so culture.
>>>>> 
>>>>> There is, of course, lots of inflation if you look close. In the
>>>>> developing economies, many prone to hyperinflation and in tuition and
>>>>> medical costs. The cost of tuition is up over 1000% since 1980 and
>>>>> medical costs are up by over 500%.
>>>>> 
>>>>> The price of food. Down. And everything from China. Buy a TV lately?
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 10:17 AM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> Inflation starts in Germany?
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> https://twitter.com/charlesforelle/status/818113944183341056
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market;
>>>>>>> no one
>>>>>>> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.
>>>>>>> Nada. Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism
>>>>>>> seem to
>>>>>>> have a deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> No one knows anything.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the
>>>>>>> future
>>>>>>> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are
>>>>>>> they going
>>>>>>> to handle inflation?
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>>>>>>>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>>>>>>>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> WE all have an interest in the markets.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond
>>>>>>>> markets,
>>>>>>>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>>>>>>>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be
>>>>>>>> ending,
>>>>>>>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>>>>>>>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>>>>>>>> predict the future.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would
>>>>>>>> be
>>>>>>>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>>>>>>>> attention to Trump.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>>>>>>>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and
>>>>>>>> so
>>>>>>>> on.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>>>>>>>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but
>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>>>>>>>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>>>>>>>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>>>>>>>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position
>>>>>>>> longer
>>>>>>>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data
>>>>>>>> that
>>>>>>>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>>>>>>>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>>>>>>>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>>>>>>>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates?
>>>>>>>> The
>>>>>>>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much
>>>>>>>> is
>>>>>>>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com>
>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should
>>>>>>>>> be
>>>>>>>>> paying
>>>>>>>>> attention to here in the states?
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>>>>>>>> -
>>>>>>>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 
>>>>> -
>>>>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>>> 
>>>> 
>> 
> -
> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l

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