NP: Syria, part 8

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In its early days, the Trump Administration had hoped that Syria would be an issue on which it could achieve coöperation and compromise with Russia. But in April, in one of his first military decisions, the President ordered a U.S. missile strike on a Syrian base that was used to launch chemical weapons on Khan Sheikhoun, a town under rebel control. More than eighty people were killed. “Using a deadly nerve agent, Assad choked out the lives of helpless men, women, and children. It was a slow and brutal death for so many,” Trump said. “Even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack. No child of God should ever suffer such horror.”

Trump took a personal shot at Assad. “Years of previous attempts at changing Assad's behavior have all failed, and failed very dramatically,” he said. “Tonight, I call on all civilized nations to join us in seeking to end the slaughter and bloodshed in Syria, and also to end terrorism of all kinds and all types.”

But, given the political and military realities, U.S. officials have now concluded that any transition of power would depend on a credible election conducted by the United Nations. And the physical realities in Syria today are just as tough. Vast swaths of cities—homes, businesses, schools, health-care facilities, and infrastructure such as electricity grids and roads—have been destroyed. More than five million of Syria’s roughly twenty-two million people have fled the country, with twice as many more forced from their homes inside Syria. The prospect of holding a free and fair election in Syria—one that also includes the millions of refugees scattered in dozens of countries—will be an unprecedented challenge, diplomats told me. It will also take time for a new and more credible Syrian opposition to emerge.

The Trump Administration says it still wants a political process that holds the prospect of Assad’s departure. But it has concluded that it may take until 2021, when the next election is scheduled, to pull it off. Depending on the outcome of the 2020 U.S. election, Assad could still be in power after Trump leaves office. U.S. officials worry that Assad could win the 2021 Syrian election, one way or the other, and remain in power for years to come.

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Robin Wright has been a contributing writer to The New Yorker since 1988. She is the author of “[Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World](https://www.amazon.com/dp/1439103178/?tag=thneyo0f-20).”