Fwd: Invading Ukraine is a really bad idea
Mark Kohut
mark.kohut at gmail.com
Wed Feb 9 11:29:11 UTC 2022
I stole this just for you. Keep it to yourselves please.
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Matthew Yglesias <matthewyglesias at substack.com>
Date: Wed, Feb 9, 2022 at 6:02 AM
Subject: Invading Ukraine is a really bad idea
To: <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
Putin should just say no to pointless
blunders
Invading Ukraine is a really bad idea
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkl1zoyAUhn9NvNMBxI9ccLGtya6d6k622TTpjYNAlIroCNY1v35JM5wDM-858M7wHEataIZpJeNgrHffKruOgmixGCWsFZM3GzFVkhMUYreSxOMEJIgltSdNdZ2E6KlUxBvnWklGrRz0vRtGW5hGXksguCIQs6jmQPAwvSacx1FSJ7VAMUpo_DClM5dCM0EGrdZqpJJ7irTWjmYT_tigvYtlWQKjhqUeJqmbgA29E0eXUn9R7iR_7iYqtfCl8ak_CarU6teUb8K9HTqhN2Em1hfI0Gk9I9Xln8Na3A63MivCcl0k-7m98f12_HjO4zJrbsWxwEX21-S9arnTiuMFlNlhcYmL50XSc3lzb0j26yRfjzv4-7jD5Vtucl3Ci8zjXD99sfBgWX9qL-GfsUZYXg9B6BdaHZn_zp7es8ualjwr_vnjTb7sTjIREYD4HK2vH87ckwQB5AJsIQQAwwAFGMcc0jDaXiGPKEBBymMeNZ_RBoO-gYGZa2Mp6-7_402kp1MXdEM7W1dv7qS-Cw5W5c5-1tKuldC0VoITO83Cs49R-KZaNUKLyY0Ir6glMMYYA4xTCBB8YHOgcRrCMAWR55z54G5pZ2ptK5a1UcJIav4DoBHMiQ>Putin
should just say no to pointless blunders
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxNkE1uxCAMhU8z7BoBgfwsWHTTayAnOAkdAhE4GuX2ZWZaqbJlbNno6XszEK4pX-ZIhdizWLoONBEfJSARZnYWzNY7I1tVo--ZM7yXcz8xX-ySEXfwwbDjnIKfgXyKz2uhRzFothnXwzKpsYUJpIBOdh0u0I0zdxKQT8tbFE7nMc5oUgyXPcA7FsxGdJRb-3mTXzXLORWC-d7Maa_jkdPiA9ZOD5xz9bED0YaPj2sNWDwU5o3ksiYfhagHopGNUp0T0OpxEU4Dl83gOqfXb31TfF9F81-DZbNDvjf3tJ1U9-uT87WoqLa--xk9XRYjTAGdoXwio7eRL0_sihFzNdhZICM6pRRXahBcijd0tUkNrWgHrllVdqn-iuaX4w_jB0I5jJs>
Matthew Yglesias
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxNkE1uxCAMhU8z7BoBgfwsWHTTayAnOAkdAhE4GuX2ZWZaqbJlbNno6XszEK4pX-ZIhdizWLoONBEfJSARZnYWzNY7I1tVo--ZM7yXcz8xX-ySEXfwwbDjnIKfgXyKz2uhRzFothnXwzKpsYUJpIBOdh0u0I0zdxKQT8tbFE7nMc5oUgyXPcA7FsxGdJRb-3mTXzXLORWC-d7Maa_jkdPiA9ZOD5xz9bED0YaPj2sNWDwU5o3ksiYfhagHopGNUp0T0OpxEU4Dl83gOqfXb31TfF9F81-DZbNDvjf3tJ1U9-uT87WoqLa--xk9XRYjTAGdoXwio7eRL0_sihFzNdhZICM6pRRXahBcijd0tUkNrWgHrllVdqn-iuaX4w_jB0I5jJs>
Feb 9
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw1UsmSmzAQ_RpzG0oSYjtwcMZxyp7AlB0v47lQQmqwzBqQhuCvj7CTUut1qfdWN2cKirafoq4dlDVDqqYOogbGoQKloLf0AH0qRUQcao7vWyJCPuF-ZskhzXuAmskqsjqdVZIzJdtmtsZuiAPXuka-l_MAUV9wwt08cLEb4MBHXsC8HGfIeyZlWkhoOERtU01px6SwquiqVDcsnOWCrA2N42gPVTtmbS-bwuZtbYSskwa_sIE5jmGPcl56YHwuZeGsVVuC4SuYtpiT0_RBqnJza6f4vrsnq9hJplHyH-FdrMPu83XjJaviHh9iGq-Ow6bZVpdzgtg51MZH0o6UGzlKdl4j8_6T3HYoWS3NLcafr9uOO7F8l9tRnDcqPhzd-FDg2Z47Jzn78_p0vTj7LiNU5jv7d3p_m8b9DeDyEbwkZM_21a8vCKuz0t-Wb-Py-L6Ez-9KS7ognlZ1OrS652C6GXQ2KMbLf_IahNT13OXcviUjgoghFGKMEMU2sSn1BGaOG-ZYuAwROxCecIubu6CoLrD9P-D8sVYf1awv7bK9amX0xRz0oTBTTg2vdSPVlELDsgpEpHoNlnru0KOAtIAGerNbImUqwh6lFFEaYETwc95mQ2jgYCdArmUyi9Z4NSapUlcYp6KCQbLhL5j34c8>
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<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw1UsFymzAQ_Rpzg5GEwHDg0AS7JRPouHGdOBdGSBusWAgGiVD89RVJO9Lq8Hb3vdXucmah7cclG3pjvfWp7TJApmE2CqyF0ZsMjLUUGQmpO9utJzK0JXzbeNLUbyNAx6TKvGFqlOTMyl6v0ThKcRJ5lyxqYiCYkSRKECDEIKVNyGKOCSFIkPRLlE1CguaQ9Vot9cCk8FR2sXYwm_Dbhuzdnec5MKqfm36Uug143zlwcCb1BxMO8qfryKQGXxqf-SMwpRa_YcKFuOAOtHVke9tfQW_CHJYHzMlpeSHqWrz3S3k73Kq8DKtllvx7ehP7dHi9L-Iqb2_lsaRl_tsUnboIh5XHM6ryw-yMlvezZC_VzXFI_uMkH487_PO4o9VTYQpd4bMs4kLfffDwYHl3upzDX0NDqHw7BKFfanXk_jO_e87PS1KJvPzjDzf5sDvJLUQI05doeXx14hsST7arTT-NHFz1ZmqMZfz6D-9AyKlbf7UOw5MZQa67BKUYI0RxQAJKY4FZGKVvWEQMkSARsYja92hDUdfi4D_h2ldvzDo2XoNrf5ms87cr6afDDbleezlpaZcaNGsUiMyOE3j2a4U-C6hb0DC61RI1sxmOKaWI0gQjgr_G7RaEJiEOExR5Tln0Lks7UWsvMC-tAiOZ-QvrLuAc>
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<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxNkk2PmzAQhn9NuAXZxgQ4cNgmzTbpJtWq-ah6QcaeEAewkbGXJb--JmmlyjOW_MxYo3lnOLNQaTPmne5tMF2FHTvIFQx9A9aCCVwPppAiJxH1J0kCkaOE8KQMZF9cDEDLZJMHnSsbyZmVWk3ZOM5wGgfXHLMMX3hUCsFKKLOsJDShGc8SVuI0xZdnUeaEBMUh16oZi45JETT51dqun0UvM7L2NgxD2Dd6KLWRqgq5bj3svEv1wYRHc1cbJhXMZT9ncwOsacZ5ycQsWjvbFr12hsMsWvWu7C3j9YwsJt6CkK71_NHIX8i1sqDslH1lBjxlfGrtP2B1DdMbxi3m5DT-Ik29uelxd3-_71e7aD8Okp3XyLPP_e0d7Vcv3qvhbbnteLSTP-R2EOeN3R2O8e5Q4Y0cJI9O0udL_prdxRKPv8_rm3htPkq5zcLNN3Om379-6X6eJCeuvdT6-GYP92WyQ_fjKFbo5tTnEq-vL4HMCSLeUIYxQhSHJKR0ITCL4uyCRcwQCVOxEHF1i2cUtRUO_8kyKRuYvGWmDmt9ddbHq0maR8CP2YvTtk5JOxagWNmAyK1xENjnEj1kLCpQYPxyiYLZHC8opYjSFCOCnwP3K0LTCEcpigNfWWj_S_mi1l5hGKsGesn6P4s95E4>
I have a more sympathetic view of Russian nationalism than your average
centrist shill pundit.
Slow Boring proudly ran Natalie Shure’s piece on why the alleged Russian
attacks behind “Havana Syndrome” are almost certainly fake
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOhCAQ_JrhpuHp48BhL_sbBqVVdhAMNDH-_eJMuhqSKkilajEIW0y3PmNG8hwT3ifoAFf2gAiJlAxpclZzIev0PbGa9nzpZ-LytCaAwzivyVlm7xaDLobnNVMjGxTZ9doxOQ9rzxZFxWiU6NXcdT2nHbW2G8TX1BTrICygY_D3dBpnidc74plf4ufFfyuu62qzj9cckwtbu8Sjkmdd3KHJZV3h4RuXmwTGN3PBpioJKkOc5pRX0JExSiVreStlZ5kRalyZVYbydrCdVdufekl6bKzNZc5olvdjRJI-THq377gXrPr2RP4INfVU76MEh_cEwcwerMZUgOC300890wYBUu3aTgY166SUVMqBUc6--WtjchBMDFSR6mxj_RWqKdYI1715yM7kf5Xbj-o>
and Lee Harris’ case that the U.S. should attempt a serious diplomatic
rapprochement with Russia
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkE2OhCAQhU_T7DSA0OqCxWzmGoafQplWIFDGePuhu1OvIKGKvLzPaoQ1lVvlVJG8jwXvDCrCVXdAhELOCmUJTvFBtBpH4hQduR0NCXXxBeDQYVckn2YPVmNI8b3N5MwmSTZlBifAsdH6yXrG9Wy48Zp5Pw_MSkO_pvp0AaIFleJ-L1kHR3a1Ieb6GH4e_Lfpuq6-7ukyqYS49jYd7TG3xg06qyt0PpWu6JxLshscELG7Am5dOWsNmgTFKW-iM2OUCtbzXoinY3qQs2dOasr7yT2dXP_kQ9BjZX09TUVtX28zUtShy6t_pe3ENl_fsT-Dlnxp93HGgPcCUZsdnMJyAsEv1w-iZYUIpfF2i0bFnkIIKsTEKGdfBo2amAY2TFSS5uxS-xWbKbaA173u0FLUf2KPk4E>.
I think a lot of the officials who’ve been running America’s Russia policy
for years are irrationally invested in trying to reduce Russian
geopolitical power and overthrow Putin’s regime when this has been
counterproductive from the standpoint of other, more important objectives.
And I think most Americans, correctly recognizing that Russia is not that
important, don’t pay much attention to the extent to which U.S. policy has
been anti-Russia over the longer run and also lack the cognitive empathy
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw1UU2znSAM_TWy0wHErwWLN32v00133TtcyVV6URyIveXfN-p0yJwTCEkgZzIIc4hZ7yEhO2HEvIPe4J08IEJkR4I4OqtlrWh1HbOad3LqHsyl8RkBVuO8Zvvx8G4y6MJ23hbNIPqGLVo8h1oAt7KvueLK8JaTB4q3naltP9xNzWEdbBPosPk87sZZ5vWCuKei_ijkdzIP9KJcgT1oYyK6yQN5uEC5pzwtwYc5l-FZwhrOVxhfms2WU5g3h-4P0PlucMmFrM-a3Rchwl8s6s9fi0uFbCSP8IR4uxguWsL74jd4X8hvp3_ClyToOcHwecV_BDvDnUldL_6Z_9dKJlfMacklGR-E4FyJSlZKtVaYuhmewjaGy6q3rW3m302h-DqLKh2PhGZ6VVNYWdSria_qFZYDKT6fY78CNPmReD3on3mEzTw8WI3xAIa3rpdE4wwbRNLbjga1aJUiOVQvuBS3BqSa6mtR97xh1NkGytqoKdKI33mm-TuT_gHKF7UL>
to imagine how the world looks through the eyes of Russian officials.
All that being said, it is clearly Vladimir Putin who has provoked the
current acute crisis with Ukraine and thus with the west.
And having done so, I can imagine that he and his advisors may feel that
the best course is to go through with an invasion — the west might get mad,
but realistically, the Europeans still need natural gas and the Biden
administration doesn’t want to disrupt the global economy.
But it would be a very bad idea. After Napoleon killed the Duc D’Enghein,
Talleyrand remarked that “it’s worse than a crime, it’s a mistake.”
Invading Ukraine would be a mistake. Defeating the Ukrainian military would
be relatively easy, but actually governing Ukraine would be challenging and
risks a prolonged occupation that would destroy Russian national strength
and discredit the Russia-sympathetic political figures that Putin has
cultivated in Europe and the United States. It would cement a Russian
alliance with China in which Beijing would be the dominant partner. And it
could create a much more serious threat to the stability of Putin’s regime
than a pro-western government in Kyiv ever could.
The Russians should keep their own cynical view of American policymakers in
mind: U.S. officialdom doesn’t really care about Ukraine or the welfare of
the Ukrainian people but would welcome the opportunity to see Russia mired
in an endless conflict. Just say no.
Russia can probably defeat Ukraine easily
Russia is a middling economic power (between South Korea and Brazil in
nominal gross domestic product, and between Germany and Indonesia with
purchasing power parity adjustments) but it’s a major military power.
Once upon a time that was down to their large nuclear arsenal, but over the
past 20 years, Putin has made major investments in upgrading
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkU2OwyAMhU9Tdo2AQH4WLGYz14ic4CZMCURgFOX2Q1qBeBa2efCxAOEa02WOmIndy0TXgSbgmT0SYWIlY5qcNbJVdfQ9s4b3culn5vL0Sog7OG_YUWbvFiAXw10t9CgGzTYDI_avcXgpBW0rdY_cdjCAlYNeBGj5NYViHYYFTQz-mg5wlnmzER350f485G-d53k24SK3Y26WuNcdyaWswsUd93dJTN5WxZLigTVIJWcHz915R5Cu51HIhWd5J3ABm412z5y5j-GSj0JwrkQjG6U6K6DV40tYDVw2g-2sXv_0Q_F9FU0ucyZY3vc1WDI7pHfzjluhml9vGp9EBTJV3UtwdE0YYPZoDaWCjL64P-SmFQOm-g12AjKiU0pxpQbBpfiiqTDV0Ip24JpVZxtrV6imRBue1-qxvjD_A87SmG0>
the quality
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkd3OpCAMhq9mONPw5-gccLAnexumQlW-QTBQ1nj3y3wTGmhTmrd9aoFwS_k2ZyrEPtdM94km4lUCEmFmtWCevTNS6XbGkTnDR2nHhfkyrxnxAB8MO-sSvAXyKX5-i-ElpoHtxlqntRgn5WAUTg9CoASUTo3Luqzj-hWF6jxGiybFcM8neMeC2YnO8lB_HvJvs-u6-qv89DYdLYJM3gYszc21FA-dTXHNKVLp6juDj9hdnvaunlsGh647fPAE-e4yLtUH6mBt43Ul_fNIrToEOAt2QjzblEpJMTJvJJfN-EsIzrXoZa_10wlQw2sVbgAu-8k93bD9DA_Nj030pS6FwL4_bbJsDsjv_p32Si2_fUj9Jhqsub1HjZ7uGSMsAZ2hXJHRdxW_VOcNI-a2IjcDmdaY1lzrSXApvtgaaD0poSY-sKbsUquKTZRox-veGh8P5T8mD6UO>
of the Russian military and spending money on equipment and training, but
also, critically, gaining real-world fighting experience. The idea that
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War was a “strategic success”
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkMuOhCAQRb-m2WkAwceCxWzmNwxCqUwjGChi_PvB7lChknrk3jpGI2wx3eqMGcnzzXifoAJc2QMiJFIypNlZxTtR3zAQq-jAzbAQl-c1ARzaeUXOsnhnNLoYnmkmJzZKsqtlGu2wcJh6YyVfRzEyMy2mG6hgHQj5FdXFOggGVAz-nk_tLPFqRzzzq_t58d8a13W1Xl-rTrD4uLUmHrWaSs5O5yZjek5xpsnFGMi1cienGx1ssxYsCZojZhOv3BzOWg8N6IzNGavpmzjFKa9BJ8ZoNdbyVojeMt3JaWVWasrb0fZWbn_yJeixsTaXJaM278cHSerQ6d2-416w9rcHyadRqcw1HyU4vGcIevFgFaYCBL_MP_jmDQI8B9hZo2K9EIKKSopy9uVTiYqxY91IJanKNtatUEURd7juzcMD4R-oNp3p>
is overblown, but it was certainly a *tactical* success and it demonstrated
that Russia can actually pull off power projection at a distance.
The Ukrainian military, by contrast, has a lot of problems. For a very long
time, Ukraine was led by pro-Russian authoritarian regimes with no real
interest in conducting an independent foreign policy and who used the
military mostly for domestic repression.
The regime that’s been in place since 2014 has been under constant pressure
from Russia and has attempted to switch from Russian-provided to
western-provided equipment while fighting an ongoing low-level war in
Donbas. There’s been a lot of corruption and instability over the years,
and while some western countries have suddenly surged in weapons and
supplies, that hasn’t generally been the case for the past eight years.
Russia also has Ukraine more or less surrounded. Because Russia already
took over the Crimean Peninsula and has troops stationed in both Belarus
and the little strip of Moldova called Transnistria
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwtkE1uxCAMhU8zLBEQyM-CRTc9QffICU5CJ4EIHI1y-5KZypYt26Cn901AuKR82SMVYndxdB1oI77KhkSY2Vkwu-CtanSNrmPeik5N3chCcXNG3CFslh3nuIUJKKR4v5ZmkL1hq0Uv_TC3zThMnRi71phRYd8L0_UgYZYfUTh9wDihTXG73AHBs82uREd5NF8P9V0TI3-FZzjQB-ApL3V1z7X9ZIglhkI5AAtWCVVTDFIKoSVXXOvWS2jMMEtvQCje-9ab5dc8tNgXycs5FoLpyae0s2x3yE_-TOtJ9b7c7t6HatDVvp8x0OUwwriht5RPZPTB9ybhFoyYK1bvgKxstdZC614K9W-1wtF9I5uKgFVln-qvWEWJVnxdy4YlQPkDWECJBA>,
Ukraine is in a very weak position.
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxVUsvSnSAMfprDToerwoLFP53pazhcovIfFQvYU_v0RV11yCQhIflCEmcKTDGdeo-5oIsN5dxBb_DJC5QCCR0Z0hC8pozX0_fIa9xT11sU8jAmgNWERaP9sEtwpoS4Xa-JUEQKNGtGlFRGABWjtdxj348MFPBuVJ4RPz6g5vABNgc6bss57CZ4tOi5lD2_2NeL_qzk_Nbmw-Zi3Lt1ca2msJoJqhyhuPmSNU-JL_rj16OwrylGX-_jMuwpTglyDr-h2nMB2GvEA0HFBSIumMrs4d5Q_akBLKx1kjfWGNbUz0OjBJGN8ZZRC32vJG8za81q_sbNfPJTV83xdONW7yLzrRrlRE_BNhwIaTgXvlHEy6YTtPe2s53i_SAx_iMobr93mFDQFNNKWBGCMSctbTnvPDFMqJF4YTBtpe-8mL7Fi-N1Iv_1CCW9mvRu33E-SvVP16xuRy1wqHI9tlDOATZjF_C6pANQeZbhnuswwQapLokfTNGk45xjziXBlDyDq6PmkhEmsUAV2ccatVXQUmb4nNMCOZj8D4Rmxyo>
(Kyiv Post map
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUduurCAM_ZrhDcPN0Xng4byc3zAIHWWLYKBs499vnEmbtuklq121BmFJ-dJHKkhuM-F1gI5wlgCIkEktkCfvtJCqyTAQp9kg7DATX6Z3BtiND5ocdQ7eGvQp3t28f_GxJ6uejRydZLK3M3sz9wSrBsn6AQZrWvb9BTXVeYgWdIrhmg7jHQl6RTzKQ_57iP9Nz_Pstsv_3v2dTXtLmYzeBmhROnxsyJ-Igmt-N3mjiwmQED09V4P0TDU4amiupXgTqY-_prQpmt60btn4CDSktNHgN6BScSHGbsU9EK8FE03Zi3PGFO9Ep9TTcSP715u73jDRje7p-uWnfyi2L7wrdS5o7HavSrK-1-m2tFZs9eWm7FNorE3N7zV6vCaIZg7gNOYKBL8_-dA7LRAht1-5yaDmT6UUU2rkTPAvf41xNUouR9aThuxSm4oNFHGF81oCtIPLHxqdp4M>)
Probably the best thing the Ukrainians have going for them is military
drones from Turkey
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkU2OwyAMhU9Tdo2AkJ8uWMxmrhERcBMmBCIwinL7cVqB_BA2fvBhDcKS8qWPVJDdYcLrAB3hLAEQIbNaIE_eadkqGsPAnOaDtMPMfJneGWA3Pmh21Dl4a9CneFeL7iXGjq1aKTcCN30_2lG417sTqh8s586KVio1fk1NdR6iBZ1iuKbDeMeCXhGP8mh_HvKX5nmeTbzQ71Aam3bakVxKEv4J7V2ScnCkUHM6gBZ1y8ZHeGLNG1zPXEvx5ulyitRkxT0wr-8uXPKXEJwr0chGqd4J03avt3Cd4bIZXe-65a97KL4voil1Lmjsdt-CZb2bvDVbWitSfrlhfBLEYyLda_R4TRDNHMBpzBUYfml_wE0LRMj0C24yqEWvlOJERXApvmSIpRpb0Y68Y-TsEp2KZIq4wnktAehF5R9aDZdo>.
Turkey joined NATO decades ago, and while it has drawn closer to Russia since
the fall of the Soviet Union
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkUEO4yAMRU9TdomAQJMuWMxmrhE54KZMCYnAKMrtx22FBd-y0TcPD4TrXi537JXEZ5vpOtBlPGtCIiyiVSxzDE4Phtc4iuDkqP24iFjnZ0HcICYnjrak6IHinj_dyj7UZMWLxaitVIsx8PATwlOiUSOGxaow-vvyM4UWImaPbs_pmg-IQST3Ijrqbfhz0385zvPsfY2138vKKWRIF6csC67sCqnz-3Ygxc8MHeTQPRu1gl1ptUboWL_x6gqm75RVRKel5pAPpaQ0qte9MfegYLCPpwoWpO6ncA92_WdvRm6r6mtbKoF_92wlitugvPv3_mrE9fUD4ltgFjOfW8uRrhkzLAmDo9JQ0I_0F9q8YsbCPxBmIKfuxhhpzKSkVj8qzNFMgxomaQU7h51vZTYleuF5rQn5WfU_QZ6aQA>,
Russia and Turkey are involved in proxy conflicts across the Middle East,
North Africa, and the Caucuses. Back in 2020, Azerbaijan defeated Armenia
in a quick war
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUM2OhiAMfJqP2xqK4M-Bw172ssm-AqlSlVXBAMb49ov7pU2bdtpMZkbMNId46yOkzJ5i8n2Q9nSljXKmyM5E0TirRS1LtC2zmrdibAfmkpki0Y5u0-w4h82NmF3wzzWoHjrFFt0K4K1FhSQn6morZK-aCUD0nQWi_k2Kp3XkR9LBb7c50Fm26SXnI73qz5f4Kkm-utzqDrIOqxDnsnrm0gQX3Pxg0eHDxzdGHHBdzIWROV2wB-4BOJdQiUrKxgLWqp_AKuSi6mxj1fyrXpLvM1TpHFLGca3GsLOod4xrtYblzAWfH6n_QFFrSt9P7_JtyOOwkdU5nsTy28t_W8xMnmLx2BrMGhopJZeyAy7grbs4Jbsa6o4rVphtKF--kOa80HXPGyWH6Q_IoYy1>,
with drones provided by Israel and Turkey providing the decisive advantage
over Armenia’s Russian-supplied military.
Nobody thinks drone magic will put Ukraine over the top. But this is a
pretty new form of warfare, and there’s at least some downside risk to the
Russian military in terms of unexpected losses.
Of course, the real downside risk when great powers invade other countries
is what happens next.
Occupying foreign countries is hard
Operation Enduring Freedom launched on October 7, 2001, with American and
British warplanes targeting Taliban and al-Qaeda targets with assistance
from cruise missiles launched from warships. Logistically speaking, it was
very difficult for the United States of America to attack Afghanistan,
which is nowhere near the United States and also not near any oceans or
major U.S. military installations. Nonetheless, the Taliban evacuated Kabul
by November 13, and previously hard-pressed Northern Alliance fighters
swiftly defeated their enemies once they were assisted by NATO airpower and
relatively small numbers of American special forces.
The logistics of the 2003 invasion of Iraq were more favorable, and from
the first day of “shock and awe,” bombing took about 26 days. Fewer than
300 of the coalition forces who participated in the invasion were killed
during these major combat operations.
In both cases, of course, the problem proved to be not defeating the enemy
army but establishing durable control over the newly conquered territory.
And this is not a uniquely American problem. The Soviet Union had its own
experience in Afghanistan, which also featured a logistically impressive
initial takeover followed by a long-running catastrophe.
Back when counterinsurgency was a hot topic in the mid-aughts, a lot of
leading experts said that a successful occupation requires one occupying
soldier for every 40 civilians
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUUuu5CAMPE2zIwIC-SxYzGauERHsTphOIALyotx-nNfCsi1VmbLK3lVcUr7tkUplT5rqfaCNeJUNa8XMzoJ5CmBVq-n1PQMreuX7mYUyvTPi7sJm2XHOW_CuhhQftjSjHAxbbW8Q1Ahet91sQMj57cUo_Cy7WQkpu6-oOyFg9GhT3O7pcAHYZtdaj_Jq_7zUX4rruprLlTXEpab4TDU-7QS47Nfwg9SlI0TSL9QqITQVYZ40Pix-5PSDkb9T3s_NPZWv6eK7izevOaWj8At5RASiG98BrTrytn0PXHd64DOInmsBSmsnwbnnfxasEopCjFKSpGxUo3UH0rVmfEswTqhmgA7M8s-8tNgX2ZRzLtX5z7M-y3Z3-dN80npWwpfHzF-A_Jyo7mcM9Z4wunlDsDWfyOr3Wr_GTwtGzHRFmFy1stNaC60HKZT8Oku30EMr20EYRsqQaCqSaK0rXveyYQmu_AeCK6r9>
in the occupied country. I’m not sure that’s right, but among people who
don’t think occupations are inevitably doomed, it seems to be the leading
theory as to why they fail so frequently. And on this score, Russia looks
set for a big problem. Ukraine’s formal military capacity is a lot weaker
than Russia’s, but compared to other small countries that big countries
have failed to successfully occupy, it’s quite strong.
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxVUtvSnCAMfpr1Toejhwsu_ulMX8MJEF26ClawW_v0jWtvOjAkJJDvy8FBwTntp9lSLtV1jOXc0ER85wVLwb06Mu5j8EZIRavrKm9YJ1xnq5DHaUdcISym2g67BAclpHi95nrgva6eRls7aGiZ6nQ7SYCuFd65SXGHwDznNygcPmB0aFJcznGD4KvFPEvZ8kN-PcR32s7HJh82F3CvxqWVTGGFGUlOWNzzkhSnpIf49vNW5Neckqf7tIzbnuYdcw6_kOy5IG7044YQ-gLRFwwd9nAvJP9eIyP2rle1BZA1JY_1oHlfg7dSWOy6oVdNlg2s8CdFeOebF8W4q_FRPyTzRwUmezkpUQump1ox1dZW9owiMz5hx6zzeuRCsN9UpWaLcxWMYHQXbOCcMcUb0SjVeg5SDxP3Gphoet96Pf_QD8XWmf9Xo2o3K-yv5pWeRyH_fPXq4yCCI8n1iKGcI0awC3pT9gOrcg_Dp6_jjBF3GhI_QjG8VYpYq54z8a9x1GrVS05Z6IqQfaJfkUBLeeL7nBfMAfJfymvGhw>
Applying the 40:1 formula to Ukraine, Russia would need an occupying army
of one million soldiers to secure the country effectively. That is the total
size of Russia’s active-duty military
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw9kUHO4yAMhU9TlhEkkKQLFrOZ1dwBObGbMk0gAqMqtx_3rzTCwuIZ_KyPFZi2XC5_5srqswW-TvKJ3nUnZiqqVSohou8HK2uaFHo99eu0qFjDoxAdEHevzrbscQWOOX1uG3c3s1NPP1ucEEbEWdsZLQ6gl8Gt93FxTpL9mkLDSGkln9N-hRMiqt0_mc96G37d-t8SlLp3fMWTMEKXyybS5yzpT5QO-RHW3BKXSDUsV0jtWGRwkY-4R4ZyBUgorQv8F04qNadEu4q-172EvhujtTVd31k7ooHB3R8GHei-m3FEt_11N6uPzXS1LZVhfXVrPlTxB5RX98rPxlLfPkx-CoJF5jqOliJfgRIsO6Hn0kjxF_oPv7BRoiKfgQHYm9Faq62dje7NF5AgtfNghlk7Jc6Y5VUSU-Ynva9tpxqh_gM4lp9i>,
and of course, many of those personnel are in the Navy or deal with
strategic nuclear weapons. Russia does have two million reservists and
500,000 paramilitary forces at their disposal, so I’m not saying it’s
impossible. But it would be a huge strain, so I assume they’d try to get
away with fewer people.
Ukrainians keep rejecting Russian rule
Russia already has small occupying forces in parts of Georgia (South
Ossetia and Abkhazia), Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas), and Moldova
(Transnistria).
The United States rejects all of that as illegitimate and declares that the
administrative subdivisions of the USSR should be treated as sacrosanct for
the purposes of international relations. That Russia has pulled this off
without breaking much of a sweat has created a sense in both Moscow and
Washington that they might be able to do the same in Ukraine. But despite
American protestations, the reality of those “frozen conflicts” seems to be
that most of the people in the places in question actually do want to be
under Russian suzerainty. The ethnic politics of both the Russian Empire
and the USSR were complicated and not perfectly captured by the maps of
Soviet fake federalism. Taking over Crimea works because it’s full of
Russian people who don’t really want to be citizens of an independent
Ukraine.
But by the same token, we’ve seen consistently over the past 20 years that
most Ukrainians (especially outside Crimea) sincerely do not want to be
governed by a Russian puppet regime. Mass street protests overthrew a
pro-Russian regime in 2004
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUMtuxCAM_JrliIBAyB449NJrpf4AIsEhNAQiHl3l70u6suWRbdB4ZjEVXMqXOlOp6C66XieoCK8SoFbIqBXI2lvFBt5DSmQVkWyRM_JFrxngMD4odLY5-MVUn-L9moonnQTa1DRLyVfOR0HlyFbBxMztuKyST3zt8CY1zXqIC6gUw6VP4y0Kaqv1LI_h48E-e0LEL7_7E6w3OGXXR3ff4Sub6EB_w28K7T4AecUI60melBLCKWa4X2CpGcRzpVYYwvBkRyvcj3hwcjiKS5tLNcuOl3SgrA6Td7ynrdW-d7fE_0VXqTseLfp6aYhmDmBVzQ1QfXv4b4d2ECF3b602VdGRc044nyhh9K23O8SngQ4TEagz29R_xU5a6wavywUo3pQ_3RSKpg>
and then again in 2014
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkNGOrCAMhp9muCSAqHjBxSab8wDnBQhKRXYUDJSd-PaLM2nTpi3ky_8vFsGnfOkzFSR3MXidoCO8yg6IkEktkE1wWnSyxTgSp9kolnEmoZg1Axw27Jqcdd7DYjGkeL_m_cRVTzYtGecdKMW4c3JcYJrZoKQdRslgnFf1gdrqAsQFdIr7ZU4bHNn1hniWR_f1EP9aQqSv8AwnuGBpyr6t7rm1__Cb9vomp9V8Bx8DXiRowURLNnHOmORUUCkHx23XTyt3vWWCKje43v_0D8kOz2mpc0G7POmSDpL1YfOTPtNWsd39LfN9aEpN60e9MQainXdwGnMFgh8f35YYDxFy89cZi5oPUkompeJM8I_m5pJUHe8U60kju9R-xQZF3OB1-R1KsOUPPMGMPg>
after Moscow-friendly forces regained power.
Some of this is nationalistic sentiment. And some of it is the fact that
Putin-era Russia is a corrupt, authoritarian petro-state, and that makes
Russia a bit of a tough hang as an ally, particularly from an economic
development standpoint. The post-Soviet Ukrainian economy has been a basket
case
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxVkMtuxCAMRb9m2CUCAnksWHTT34gccBI6CUQ8NMrf19NZVRgQurYvPhYKbjHd5oq5sPcxl_tCE_CVDywFE6sZ0-ydkZ2iNQzMGT5IOyzM53lNiCf4w7CrLoe3UHwM72yhJzFqtlOZ5rKbQGvJ7TSCo3cHqxg63lOb5WMK1XkMFk0Mxz1f4B07zF7KlR_d10N-U4QI--UD9W9zXXIB-2xtPEm5aL_2u_G5qc8EPmCTq90bCA3aGOLpbbPSJ2tC5o3kkoJPQnCuRCtbpXonoNPTKpwGLtvR9U5vP_qh-LmJf24smRPSs33GvRbSt_fwfwLNP9N91uDLPWOA5UBnSqrIyofuH6h5w4CJqLsZihG9UoorNQouxYcEsVNjJ7qRa0bOLlJVINNSdnzd24HZQ_4FrrKTyg>.
On its western flank, Ukraine shares borders with Poland, Slovakia,
Hungary, and Romania, four post-communist countries that are all now
members of the European Union. These countries are not only richer than
Ukraine, but the gap is growing.
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxVUsHSnCAMfpr1pgMIKx44_PPP9DWcANGlq2AFu7VP36inDpCEhOQLSRwUnNJ2mDXlUp1kKMeKJuInz1gKbtWecRuCN6KVtLqu8oZ1wnW2CnkYN8QFwmyqdbdzcFBCiudrrnquVfUyquXQg2Xea9BS-qeVDJR3oxQAnKJcoLD7gNGhSXE-hhWCr2bzKmXNj_brIX7Qdj42ebe5gHs3Li2kCgtMSHzE4l4npzglPcT3r1tov6aUPN3HeVi3NG2Yc_iNpM8FcSWPG0KoE0SdMETs7t5I9q1Gpqx1WtYWoK3p81j3iusavG2Fxa7rtWxy28ACf1OET77zohh3NS7xSjJfIna8U1rbenxyiieA11QTW1uuPWOjQzpDKxn7I4g0a5yqYAQTtFnPOWOSN6KR8uk5tKofuVfARKP906vpp3pItkz8vyJVm1lgezfv9NoL2aezWZeBMhyIL3sM5Rgwgp3Rm7LtWJV7Gq7GDhNG3GhK_ADF8KeUkkmpORP87hz1WuqWt5qpipB9Iq9IoKW88HNMM-YA-R93Y8en>
Poor countries that have deep economic ties to Germany and other Western
European countries can get rich as low-cost suppliers of manufactured goods
to the richer countries of Europe.
The top export of Poland is car parts (followed by cars), and the top
destination is Germany. For Romania, it’s also car parts followed by cars,
with Germany as the top destination. Hungary and Slovakia shake things up:
there it’s cars followed by car parts, again with Germany as the top
destination. Ukraine’s top export is seed oil, and its top trade partner is
Russia. And the problem with being part of a Russia-centric economic system
is that the Russian economy is based on fossil fuel extraction. Germany’s
manufacturing economy can send supply-chain tendrils out to its neighbors,
who start out manufacturing the lowest-value components and then move up.
But there’s no value chain that Russia can export.
Ukrainians have a strong motive to seek economic integration with the west,
and since Russia-aligned regimes in Kyiv keep trying to prevent that, they
keep provoking popular dissent. If Russia wants to actually keep control of
Ukraine, they’re going to need to invest significant resources in doing so.
And for what?
There’s very little upside to conquering Ukraine
A few years before the outbreak of World War I, Norman Angell famously
argued in his book “The Great Illusion”
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkM1uhSAQhZ_msjSAcNUFi27adN89QRiVimBgyI1vX-wNEybzQw7nswZhTflSZypI7kvjdYKK8CoBECGTWiBr7xTvRTvDQJyiA7fDTHzRSwY4jA-KnHUO3hr0Kd7bTE5slGRTlLFpAWlnYycrxhnsAJwPS896mBjwt6ipzkO0oFIMlz6NdySoDfEsj_7jwT9bQOxefvcnOG-6lNfWuuuWfjbQXxkM6u8Qamk_IF5xylvQiTFKBet4J8TTMdPLaWFOGsq70T2dXH_lQ9BjZV2pc0Fj986mg2R1mLx3e9oqtvl6e_wfNJu65aNGj5eGaOYATmGuQPAN8Z-HXiFCbnCdNqjYUwhBhRgZ5extuCESY2MwUkmaskvtVWyiiBu8rjVA8ab8ARFRi3g>
that great power conflict would be so economically costly with so little
upside that it was impossible to imagine it actually happening.
Well, he was wrong. But his analysis was correct on one level: “winning”
World War I still left Britain and Italy and especially France worse off
than they’d been before the war. Not just because the war itself was
costly, but because there’s very little that an advanced market economy can
actually achieve by conquering other people’s land. There are exceptions if
the land in question happens to hold valuable natural resources, hence
Trump’s mantra “we should have taken the oil.” And you can even think of
Putin’s conquest of Crimea in those terms — post-Soviet Russia inherited
the old Soviet naval base at Sevastopol, a base that provides Russia with
access to the Black and Mediterranean Seas that it would otherwise lack. A
pro-Western Ukraine might have jeopardized that base deal, and seizing it
arguably helped secure Russia’s access to the ocean.
But there’s nothing of particular value in Ukraine. Which is not a bad
thing! Poland and Hungary and Slovakia and Romania are in the same boat, as
are most places on the globe. But that’s just to say that for most of the
world, the way to get rich is to participate in complicated international
supply chains starting with low-level manufacturing and moving up to
higher-end manufacturing and tradable services.
A peaceful, stable Ukraine that successfully fights corruption and that
builds commercial ties to central and western Europe could become rich;
Ukraine has pretty good educational attainment and decent prospects. But
it’s not rich currently. It doesn’t have any riches to conquer. And its
prospects as a country under quasi-occupation by the Russian military,
wracked by constant political instability and with tons of people fleeing,
are not good at all.
Russia would be, at potentially great cost, picking up something
essentially worthless to them.
Biden should stand tall, but give Russia an out
I have two big concerns about the way the Ukraine issue is currently framed
in much of the international press:
-
It seems like Joe Biden (and like-minded administrations in Europe)
really, really don’t want Russia to invade Ukraine, as if we might
potentially be willing to make concessions of large value in order to
secure that outcome.
-
It seems like it would be a big win for the west if Putin stopped
threatening to invade Ukraine, which makes it seem like something he
probably wouldn’t want to do.
The fact is that nothing particularly bad happens to the United States (or
to the UK or to France or to Germany) if Russia takes over Ukraine. So
while we can and will put some sanctions on Russia if they do it, the
amount of real-world economic sacrifice that we are going to make for the
sake of Ukraine is pretty small. But if Putin thinks of backing down as a
big loss for him and of seizing Ukraine as a big win, he’s going to be
pretty tempted to do it.
If I had a chance to mediate here, I would emphasize that western leaders
genuinely would prefer to avoid a war and are happy to find a way to help
Putin save face. They don’t want to make him face a binary choice of war or
humiliating climbdown, because nobody likes a humiliating climbdown. But by
the same token, if Putin really wants to spend his twilight years battling
a guerrilla insurgency in Ukraine
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwtUcGypCAM_JrhpgWKo3PgsJf9DStCVHYQLAhr-febebNFiq7QSbroWCDcUr7NmQqJzzXTfaKJeJWARJhFLZhn70zXaz7jKJyRY2fHRfgyrxnxAB-MOOsSvAXyKX6q1fBS0yB2I92gQDpwWmk1TbCMz8muK7O9W9S6fkWhOo_Rokkx3PMJ3olgdqKzPPpfj-43x3VdLVCASN7aVKP1oU15Y2YJaSuM9Z3BR4SAmTjdKubsQ4CGwHJTadK6Ym7-l5VmwUKN3YF1G9j4jdOzEmPj418o_JVmTdkiDxPedLLjkC-lpNSq7Vqtn05BP7xW5QaQXTu5pxu2P8NDy2NTbalLYel3a9Mhsjkgv9t32isxv31c-yHYuJnxqNHTPWOEJaAzlCsK-q7lx-F5w4iZ1-VmIKOeWmup9aRkp74Wsul66lU_yUGwskvcFVmUaMfr3gIWD-UfcjCq2w>,
that is much more of a problem for him than it is for the United States of
America. America has a big firearms manufacturing industry
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlUMuOwyAM_JpyawQE8jhw2Mv-RuSAk7BNIAKjKn-_pJUtP-SxRjMWCNeYLnPGTOwuE10nmoDvvCMRJlYypsk7I1tVo--ZM7yXtp-Zz9OSEA_wu2FnmXdvgXwMN1roUQyabUaOlnPu9DiiHdzc6R7EMo6ac8tVj_glheI8Bosmhv2aTvCO7WYjOvOj_XnI35olwwKWchPTWldI5O2OuY5rCc_FJ4R05OcBody4kny4ccwbyWVNPgrBuRKNbJTqnIBWj4twGrhsBtc5vf7ph-LHKppc5kxgX42NB0vmgPRqXnErVO_rLfdzqIqn2o8SPF0TBph3dIZSQUZfPz_WTCsGTNVnNwEZ0SmluFKD4FJ8tVe31NCKduCaVWYX61eopEQbvq-1avSQ_wH-qo8i>,
and Joe Biden is happy to do bipartisan bills to buy those guns and send
them into western Ukraine via Poland and Romania. Compared to funding an
anti-Soviet insurgency in Afghanistan, it’s logistically quite easy and
doesn’t involve cutting deals with jihadists. It’s genuinely Russia’s
choice, and they should not feel like we are terrified of the prospects of
a Russian-dominated Ukraine or prepared to pay a huge ransom for it.
What I do think we should put on the table is that America sincerely wants
a better relationship with Russia
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJwlkE2OhCAQhU_T7DSA0OqCxWzmGoafQplWIFDGePuhu1OvIKGKvLzPaoQ1lVvlVJG8jwXvDCrCVXdAhELOCmUJTvFBtBpH4hQduR0NCXXxBeDQYVckn2YPVmNI8b3N5MwmSTZlBifAsdH6yXrG9Wy48Zp5Pw_MSkO_pvp0AaIFleJ-L1kHR3a1Ieb6GH4e_Lfpuq6-7ukyqYS49jYd7TG3xg06qyt0PpWu6JxLshscELG7Am5dOWsNmgTFKW-iM2OUCtbzXoinY3qQs2dOasr7yT2dXP_kQ9BjZX09TUVtX28zUtShy6t_pe3ENl_fsT-Dlnxp93HGgPcCUZsdnMJyAsEv1w-iZYUIpfF2i0bFnkIIKsTEKGdfBo2amAY2TFSS5uxS-xWbKbaA173u0FLUf2KPk4E>,
and if that requires formally acknowledging that Ukraine and Georgia aren’t
going to join NATO, that’s fine.
But the biggest reason we want a better relationship with Russia is that we
are trying to reorient our foreign policy around containing China. If
U.S.-Russian relations go into a tailspin, that inevitably turns Russia
into the junior partner in a firm Sino-Russian alliance. That’s bad for the
United States but it’s* really *bad for Russia. Putin should get smart and
hedge and accept a face-saving compromise on Ukraine.
Sadly, terrible things sometimes happen
There really ought to be a win-win here where Russia doesn’t invade
Ukraine, Ukraine disavows NATO membership, the western powers acknowledge
the referendum that incorporated Crimea into Russia, Russia acknowledges
that Ukraine can follow the footsteps of Sweden, Finland, and Austria into
the EU without violating neutrality, and everyone goes back to buying and
selling natural gas instead of killing each other.
The alternative is a bit worse for the U.S., worse than that for western
Europe, even worse than that for Russia, and positively catastrophic for
Ukraine.
Because everyone is better off with peace, I’m at least a little optimistic
that war can be avoided. Unfortunately, as Angell learned, sometimes people
make bad choices and launch destructive wars that leave everyone worse off.
And I’m a little concerned that the media’s love of zero-sum competitive
framings has obscured the extent to which invading Ukraine would be a
genuinely terrible choice for Putin. If he does it, it will probably be
portrayed as humiliating to various western leaders he dislikes. But it’s
important to say that it really would be a disaster for him and his country
more than for the west.
Like
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw1UsmSmzAQ_RpzG0oSYjtwcMZxyp7AlB0v47lQQmqwzBqQhuCvj7CTUut1qfdWN2cKirafoq4dlDVDqqYOogbGoQKloLf0AH0qRUQcao7vWyJCPuF-ZskhzXuAmskqsjqdVZIzJdtmtsZuiAPXuka-l_MAUV9wwt08cLEb4MBHXsC8HGfIeyZlWkhoOERtU01px6SwquiqVDcsnOWCrA2N42gPVTtmbS-bwuZtbYSskwa_sIE5jmGPcl56YHwuZeGsVVuC4SuYtpiT0_RBqnJza6f4vrsnq9hJplHyH-FdrMPu83XjJaviHh9iGq-Ow6bZVpdzgtg51MZH0o6UGzlKdl4j8_6T3HYoWS3NLcafr9uOO7F8l9tRnDcqPhzd-FDg2Z47Jzn78_p0vTj7LiNU5jv7d3p_m8b9DeDyEbwkZM_21a8vCKuz0t-Wb-Py-L6Ez-9KS7ognlZ1OrS652C6GXQ2KMbLf_IahNT13OXcviUjgoghFGKMEMU2sSn1BGaOG-ZYuAwROxCecIubu6CoLrD9P-D8sVYf1awv7bK9amX0xRz0oTBTTg2vdSPVlELDsgpEpHoNlnru0KOAtIAGerNbImUqwh6lFFEaYETwc95mQ2jgYCdArmUyi9Z4NSapUlcYp6KCQbLhL5j34c8>
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Comment]Comment
<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJw1UsFymzAQ_Rpzg5GEwHDg0AS7JRPouHGdOBdGSBusWAgGiVD89RVJO9Lq8Hb3vdXucmah7cclG3pjvfWp7TJApmE2CqyF0ZsMjLUUGQmpO9utJzK0JXzbeNLUbyNAx6TKvGFqlOTMyl6v0ThKcRJ5lyxqYiCYkSRKECDEIKVNyGKOCSFIkPRLlE1CguaQ9Vot9cCk8FR2sXYwm_Dbhuzdnec5MKqfm36Uug143zlwcCb1BxMO8qfryKQGXxqf-SMwpRa_YcKFuOAOtHVke9tfQW_CHJYHzMlpeSHqWrz3S3k73Kq8DKtllvx7ehP7dHi9L-Iqb2_lsaRl_tsUnboIh5XHM6ryw-yMlvezZC_VzXFI_uMkH487_PO4o9VTYQpd4bMs4kLfffDwYHl3upzDX0NDqHw7BKFfanXk_jO_e87PS1KJvPzjDzf5sDvJLUQI05doeXx14hsST7arTT-NHFz1ZmqMZfz6D-9AyKlbf7UOw5MZQa67BKUYI0RxQAJKY4FZGKVvWEQMkSARsYja92hDUdfi4D_h2ldvzDo2XoNrf5ms87cr6afDDbleezlpaZcaNGsUiMyOE3j2a4U-C6hb0DC61RI1sxmOKaWI0gQjgr_G7RaEJiEOExR5Tln0Lks7UWsvMC-tAiOZ-QvrLuAc>
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<https://email.mg1.substack.com/c/eJxNkk2PmzAQhn9NuAXZxgQ4cNgmzTbpJtWq-ah6QcaeEAewkbGXJb--JmmlyjOW_MxYo3lnOLNQaTPmne5tMF2FHTvIFQx9A9aCCVwPppAiJxH1J0kCkaOE8KQMZF9cDEDLZJMHnSsbyZmVWk3ZOM5wGgfXHLMMX3hUCsFKKLOsJDShGc8SVuI0xZdnUeaEBMUh16oZi45JETT51dqun0UvM7L2NgxD2Dd6KLWRqgq5bj3svEv1wYRHc1cbJhXMZT9ncwOsacZ5ycQsWjvbFr12hsMsWvWu7C3j9YwsJt6CkK71_NHIX8i1sqDslH1lBjxlfGrtP2B1DdMbxi3m5DT-Ik29uelxd3-_71e7aD8Okp3XyLPP_e0d7Vcv3qvhbbnteLSTP-R2EOeN3R2O8e5Q4Y0cJI9O0udL_prdxRKPv8_rm3htPkq5zcLNN3Om379-6X6eJCeuvdT6-GYP92WyQ_fjKFbo5tTnEq-vL4HMCSLeUIYxQhSHJKR0ITCL4uyCRcwQCVOxEHF1i2cUtRUO_8kyKRuYvGWmDmt9ddbHq0maR8CP2YvTtk5JOxagWNmAyK1xENjnEj1kLCpQYPxyiYLZHC8opYjSFCOCnwP3K0LTCEcpigNfWWj_S_mi1l5hGKsGesn6P4s95E4>
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