Serious news from Europe on Ukraine

Wed Feb 9 23:28:59 UTC 2022

That is over. History. Not even in any discussion any longer.

On Wed, Feb 9, 2022 at 5:34 PM Hübschräuber <huebschraeuber at protonmail.com>
wrote:

> "Even though the town has been the scene of bloody fighting during the
> days leading up to the peace negotiations, the ceasefire agreement did not
> mention Debaltseve at all. This glaring omission was interpreted in
> different ways by different people. The Ukrainians thought the ceasefire
> included all of the contested areas in Luhansk and Donetsk, especially
> Debaltseve. The Russian-backed separatists believed that Debaltseve must
> have been exempted from the ceasefire agreement because it was not
> specifically mentioned."
>
> Thank you. So things are not that simple...
>
> Sent with ProtonMail <https://protonmail.com/> Secure Email.
>
>
> ------- Original Message -------
> Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> schrieb am Mittwoch, 9. Februar 2022 um
> 23:22:
>
> Even I can find news about that, in that biased non-mainstream news agency
> (I'm sure) Al Jazerra. from 2015.
>
> "Before the ink was even dry on the so-called Minsk II ceasefire
> agreement, Russian-backed separatists were attacking, killing, and wounding
> Ukrainian soldiers defending Debaltseve.
>
> Debaltseve is an important town that serves as a key transport hub between
> Luhansk and Donetsk. Whoever controls it, also controls the Donbas region.
> In recent weeks the town has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, in
> the same way that Donetsk airport once was."
>
> Even though the town has been the scene of bloody fighting during the days
> leading up to the peace negotiations, the ceasefire agreement did not
> mention Debaltseve at all. This glaring omission was interpreted in
> different ways by different people. The Ukrainians thought the ceasefire
> included all of the contested areas in Luhansk and Donetsk, especially
> Debaltseve. The Russian-backed separatists believed that Debaltseve must
> have been exempted from the ceasefire agreement because it was not
> specifically mentioned.
> Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda
>
> After days of bloody fighting, Debaltseve was finally captured by the
> separatists. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian
> military units defending Debaltseve were withdrawn in an “orderly and
> pre-planned manner” – or in other words they retreated.
>
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> Play Video
>
> Video Duration 02 minutes 21 seconds 02:21
> Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda
> Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda
>
> After days of bloody fighting, Debaltseve was finally captured by the
> separatists. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian
> military units defending Debaltseve were withdrawn in an “orderly and
> pre-planned manner” – or in other words they retreated.
>
> Doomed from the beginning
>
> One can assume that Debaltseve (and the Russian occupied Crimea Peninsula)
> was ignored in the ceasefire agreement because consensus could not be found
> on how it was to be addressed. Do not forget, the ceasefire was agreed
> after a marathon 18-hour session. French and German mediators were so
> hell-bent on getting a peace deal – any peace deal – to thwart the US drive
> to arm the Ukrainians that they were willing to ignore some of the more
> contentious issues like Debaltseve and Crimea. Kiev is now suffering dearly
> from this lazy and rushed approach to “peacemaking”.
>
> So far the ceasefire appears to be benefiting everyone but the Ukrainians.
> Since the agreement went into effect last week dozens of Ukrainian soldiers
> have been killed and hundreds more have been wounded. The grad missiles
> continue to fly and Russian T-72BM tanks continue to roll. According to
> reports, the separatists violated the agreement 139 times
> <http://news.sky.com/story/1428633/ukraine-truce-broken-139-times-on-first-day> in
> the first 24 hours alone – almost once every 10 minutes.
>
> The deadline to remove “heavy weapons” – itself a terribly vague term –
> has come and gone with no action by either side. This provision in the
> ceasefire agreement was destined to fail because there is so little trust
> between the warring parties. Many prisoners who were supposed to be swapped
> under the agreement are still detained. Terms like “line of contact” and
> “security zones” are used throughout the ceasefire agreement; these are
> terms used to describe frozen conflicts, not terms to describe conflict
> resolution.
>
> Whether it is in Georgia, Azerbaijan or eastern Ukraine, it is in Russia's
> interests to keep these conflicts frozen. Russia derives much of its
> regional influence through these frozen conflicts.
>
> This ceasefire agreement has stalled the drive by some in the US to arm
> the Ukrainians. The agreement has also created a false sense of security in
> Kiev which has allowed the separatists to take the offensive against the
> Ukrainian military. As long as the separatists keep attaining victories,
> Vladimir Putin will continue to support them. This week it was Debaltseve.
> Next week it will be Mariupol.
>
> Russia loves frozen conflicts
>
> Moscow’s abysmal track record at implementing ceasefires and peace deals
> means that nobody should expect that Russia will not use its influence to
> tame the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Six-and-a-half years later Russia
> is still in violation of the 2008 peace agreement signed to end the war
> against Georgia. Russia still has its troops based in areas where they are
> not supposed to be and Moscow still prevents international observers from
> crossing into South Ossetia and Abkhazia even though they patrol freely in
> the rest of Georgia.
>
> Or look at Russia’s involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh
> <http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/02/minsk-mediation-armenia-azerbaijan-karabakh-150217044034179.html>conflict.
> Even though Russia, along with the US and France, form part of the
> so-called Minsk Group – created to find a peaceful resolution to the
> conflict – Moscow still remains the biggest weapons supplier to Armenia and
> Azerbaijan. How Russia is supposed to broker peace while selling billions
> of dollars in high-end weaponry is anyone’s guess.
>
> Whether it is in Georgia, Azerbaijan or eastern Ukraine, it is in Russia’s
> interests to keep these conflicts frozen. Russia derives much of its
> regional influence through these frozen conflicts. Bringing these conflicts
> to a peaceful conclusion would only decrease Russia’s influence in the
> region.
>
> The conflict in eastern Ukraine is a reminder that implementing the
> ceasefire agreement is often far more difficult than signing a ceasefire
> agreement.
>
> Ceasefires are messy, and it is wishful thinking to believe that local
> commanders on the ground would not interrupt the agreed text in a way that
> best suits their particular local situation. However, the scale of the
> fighting witnessed within hours and days of the agreement going into force
> has proven that Minsk II is dead and that Russia has no desire but to
> escalate the violence.
>
> Russia knows that a Ukraine in perpetual conflict will be a Ukraine that
> never joins the Euro-Atlantic community. This is Russia’s ultimate goal and
> Moscow will do whatever it takes to make it happen.
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>
> *Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and
> Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think-tank. He previously served
> as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a
> commissioned officer in the United States army.*
>
> *The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not
> necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.*
> ------------------------------
>
>    - [image: Luke Coffey]
>    <https://www.aljazeera.com/author/luke_coffey_201412310048630144>
>    Luke Coffey
>    <https://www.aljazeera.com/author/luke_coffey_201412310048630144>
>    Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and
>    Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think tank. He previously served
>    as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a
>    commissioned officer in the United States army.
>
> ------------------------------
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>
> On Wed, Feb 9, 2022 at 4:52 PM Hübschräuber via Pynchon-l <
> pynchon-l at waste.org> wrote:
>
>> "The treaty was dead on day one after its signing as Moscow’s regular
>> army with their proxies attacked and took Debaltseve."
>>
>> Some time ago, if I remember correctly, you chose not to address my reply
>> to that talking point.
>>
>> Here it is again:
>>
>> -- This is a controversial claim. As you surely know but inexplicably
>> fail to mention, Debaltseve was discussed in Minsk. Poroshenko did not
>> admit that his troops were surrounded and therefore saw no reason for them
>> to surrender:
>>
>> "The most important question, the question of the ceasefire, threatened
>> to derail the whole meeting. Vladimir Putin presented his trump card.
>> His trump card is Debaltseve. In the small town in eastern Ukraine, 70
>> km northeast of Donetsk, 5000 men of the Ukrainian armed forces are
>> encircled. That's nearly a third of the soldiers Kiev currently has on
>> the front lines, one-sixth of all its forces. That weakened the
>> Ukrainian president's negotiating position. Putin demanded that
>> Ukrainian soldiers surrender before a cease-fire could even be
>> discussed. Poroshenko became agitated. There was no cauldron near
>> Debaltseve, he said. And the condition of Putin, with whom he is on
>> familiar terms, is totally unacceptable, he said. Never, never will he
>> hand over Debaltseve."
>>
>>
>> https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/die-verhandlungen-von-minsk-ein-russisches-spiel-13428669.html
>>
>> As I understand it, Debaltseve was therefore not included in the
>> agreement. --
>>
>> Would you mind addressing the issue now?
>> --
>> Pynchon-L: https://waste.org/mailman/listinfo/pynchon-l
>>
>
>