NP: On the Ukraine thread

[Martin Dietze]

On 14. February 2022 at 17:57:41, Joseph Tracy (brook7 at sover.net) wrote:

 In fact the deal is not that broken, the lines are the same, there is
little to no fighting being reported and the remaining  issue is Nato.

Nope, it isn’t. According to the Minsk II elections in the occupied
territories have to be held according to Ukrainian law. There is no way
that elections deserving that very name can be held there unless Russia
gives up its claim to keep 100% control over there. The previous
“elections” were like this: a separatist ran against another separatist
(which, unlike the first, was not allowed to campaign). Pro-Ukrainian
parties were completely forbidden. The election was rigged.

Ukraine is right not to let this happen. And it is not the dealbreaker
here, in particular because all this blaming Ukraine is ridiculous given
the past as I have pointed out.

The only one who cares about Ukrainians is Ukrainians.

Sure. That’s nothing new.

If there is stagnation, debt and corruption after the revolution they can
no longer blame Russia.

Wrong. Russia leads war in Ukraine. Every week young Ukrainian soldiers are
killed by snipers or grenades. Ukraine needs to spend quite a big portion
of its state budget on its army. Russia blocks free trade through the Kerch
strait at will causing a big problem for Eastern Ukrainian economy. The
current situation has lead to foreign companies withdrawing from Ukraine
and flights being cancelled. These are quite significant factors solely
caused by Russia.

There are of course internal problems, like corruption. However the country
had been doing relatively well compared to other post soviet countries
depite of this.

 I said this because politicians rally voters around who to blame, not
because Ukraine is uniquely problematic. But this tactic can only continue
through the premise that Russia has or wants dominance. And that looks hard
to sustain. I don’t think they want your country. What would it add to them
but endless headaches?

Russia does want dominance. The Ukrainians know this very well, because
they have been the target of Russian “hard power” for quite a number of
years already (like Russia drastically increasing gas prices in January
2005 after Ukraine had “dared” to elect the “wrong” president).

When sitting thousands of miles away where it’s cosy and warm, and with no
foreign army in your country, making such statements about a foreign
country subjected to war and aggression is a bit … peculiar.