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[David Morris]

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1502337602862694405?s=2

Found this part of what Russian military analyst Michael Kofman told Scott
Anderson on the Lawfare podcast so striking. [Starts around minute 12;
typed this out roughly, missing words]:
lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcas…

"The initial Russian operation was very clearly designed as a sort
of...special operation. Many of us thought that was just how they would
brand it to the public while launching an invasion and large scale military
operation. But in practice it turned out very quickly—

"...that Putin really did hatch this plan in a fairly small circle of
people honestly believing there would not be much Ukrainian resistance.
[Assuming] that they could quickly get forces into the Ukrainian capital,
get Zelensky to surrender….and not have a real war…

"...Clear they lied to their troops as well. Pushed them to the border and
only at the last minute told them going into this war. Junior officers
received orders very late in the game. When thrown across border, they were
being told, they were not being sent to war,

"'you are going there to help the Ukrainians liberate themselves.' So
imagine how these troops felt when they hit the first checkpoint or the
first Ukrainian ambush….to find out… they were thrown into a large war in
Europe and essentially betrayed by their leadership

Kofman: Since then, they have made adjustments…several days into the war I
think it became clear to the Kremlin, their assumptions were wrong. They
had been looking at Ukraine as before 2014...

"What they were trying to do, as crazy as it sounds...they were trying to
do a much larger version of the operation they had conducted in 2014-2015
and they even thought they could keep it secret from the Russian public."

(end citation). Am no military expert. But if your military strategy is
based on the assumption that the Ukrainians are going to welcome you as
liberators & you can do a quick regime change and maybe even keep the war
secret from the Russian public, -->

& has an essentially political goal of making Ukraine "pro Russia" and/or
neutral buffer between west and Russia...and that all turns out to be very
wrong, what political goal are you then trying to achieve by escalating
destruction and brutality & turning it into a big war?

The war is seemingly turning even formerly Russian-leaning Ukrainians (and
the wider international public) strongly against Russia. What political
goal is going to be achieved by reducing more cities to rubble?

Meantime, the Kremlin seemingly has to worry about dissent at home in a way
it did not before.