NOT P: Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipelines?
Mark Kohut
mark.kohut at gmail.com
Sat Mar 11 09:24:05 UTC 2023
Folks are starting to talk.
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Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipelines?
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1010841&post_id=107080096&utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDE0NjQxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxMDcwODAwOTYsImlhdCI6MTY3ODI3ODg5OCwiZXhwIjoxNjgwODcwODk4LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTAxMDg0MSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.HeOBJB1ZILJNAREi58IOwm4-Zvp8D_4-3s_a_qIrQE4>Folks
are starting to talk.
Daniel W. Drezner
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Mar 8
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Photo
by the blowup
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on Unsplash
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Say, remember when I said last week
<https://substack.com/redirect/e482ab7f-16fe-4e94-b86f-6581c465cc94?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
that there were three big intelligence mysteries that were “vexing the
national security chattering classes”? I forgot a fourth: who was behind the
September 2022 underwater sabotage
<https://substack.com/redirect/3d0fd999-22db-4c88-abc1-935c6d61b4ce?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines connecting Russia to Western
Europe? But unlike those other cases, this does not sound like it will be a
mystery for long.
A week or two after the attack happened I was in Rome at a conference.
Among the Europeans there was a *lot *of hushed speculation about who could
be responsible. No one doubted that Russia was capable of taking such
destructive action, but that possibility did not make intuitive sense to
anyone. The Russians spent billions on those pipelines — blowing them up is
much less efficient than shutting off the gas, which is what Russia had
been doing. Even using the occasionally blinkered logic that has governed
Russian national security decisions in recent years, Russia would have
little to no incentive to destroy the pipelines.
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There was some folks in Rome who believed the United States was responsible
- but not many. That also seems unlikely. It is true that successive
administrations in the United States opposed both Nord Stream 1 and Nord
Stream 2. It is also true, however, that conducting an attack like this and
getting fingered for it would be a surefire way to sow division in the
transatlantic relationship. The Europeans were already moving towards
energy autonomy for the first six months of the war in Ukraine. From the
U.S. perspective, blowing up the pipeline was a needless risk with huge
possible downsides.
Of course, “a needless risk with huge possible downsides” is also an apt
summary of large swathes of American foreign policy in this century. Last
month Seymour Hersh published a story
<https://substack.com/redirect/93377835-4e02-492a-92b2-b9adc24912f7?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
on his Substack, based on a single source, claiming that the Biden
administration was behind the attack. Both the White House and CIA issued
flat denials in response to Hersh. None of my sources buys the Hersh story
and other national security reporters categorize it as “bullshit
<https://substack.com/redirect/634dc464-9800-4fe9-801e-455b3c6d56f8?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>.”
So there’s that.
Thank you for reading Drezner’s World. This post is public so feel free to
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Yesterday, however, the *New York Times
<https://substack.com/redirect/dbb6a331-38f3-409f-9526-8c6839da4fae?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>*’
Adam Entous, Julian Barnes, and Adam Goldman
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dropped a story suggesting U.S. intelligence had fingered a different
culprit:
New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian
group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step
toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has
confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.
U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky
of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that
the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government
officials….
Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the
saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some
combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British
nationals were involved….
The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers
who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services,
U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said. But it is
possible that the perpetrators received specialized government training in
the past.
Hoo boy. There’s a lot to parse in this story.
One intriguing element is the suggestion that Russians as well as
Ukrainians were involved, even though U.S. intelligence officials said
categorically that the Russian government was not responsible for the
attack. The story notes elsewhere that, “the review of newly collected
intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of
Russia.”
The involvement on Russians would not be all that shocking. For all the
talk about Putin’s stranglehold over Russian politics, it’s been clear for
a while that not everyone in Russia’s national security community supported
the invasion of Ukraine. There has been multiple
<https://substack.com/redirect/61729e3b-b1fc-4dfc-ab24-43ca02a95154?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
acts
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of sabotage
<https://substack.com/redirect/cbcbb73d-f0b3-43a6-b6a3-944c3a14e7ed?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
in neighboring Belarus to protest that government’s support of the Russian
invasion. There have also been some mysterious incidents in Russia proper.
While these might be attributed to Ukrainian forces, one has to wonder if
they are getting help from Russians.
One question to ask is why U.S. intelligence officials are talking to
the *Times
*about this. It rebuts the Hersh story, which has had little to no traction
in the United States but has been embraced by Russia for obvious reasons.
Another possibility is that the U.S. is firing a warning shot at the
Ukrainians to sop them from taking similarly reckless actions.
Assuming the intel is accurate, the big question is the link between the
Ukrainians who launched the attack. It seems risible that this kind of
action could have been taken without anyone in the Ukrainian government
knowing anything about the operation. One has to wonder who had the initial
idea, and just how many degrees of separation there are between the
saboteurs and the Ukrainian state.
Unlike the other intelligence mysteries, however, it seems as though this
one will get solved. The tenor of the *Times *story makes it clear that
there are more leads to pursue. The
<https://substack.com/redirect/7c584c54-676f-4536-a06b-0b426f994ff4?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>*Washington
Post
<https://substack.com/redirect/7c584c54-676f-4536-a06b-0b426f994ff4?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>*’s
national security reporters
<https://substack.com/redirect/7c584c54-676f-4536-a06b-0b426f994ff4?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
already wrote a follow-up story containing the same basic thesis, but also,
that “The information was offset by other intelligence suggesting the
possibility that Russia was responsible” and “investigators have also been
mindful of the possibility that Russia or another government could have
planted evidence to sow confusion.”
With so many governments investigating the incident, more information
<https://substack.com/redirect/256b3325-4887-414a-84c8-f9e36d89c306?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>
is starting to come out. According to the German outlet
<https://substack.com/redirect/fc386c3e-6da9-4eed-bcc0-b8e9bcd2863d?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>*Zeit
<https://substack.com/redirect/fc386c3e-6da9-4eed-bcc0-b8e9bcd2863d?j=eyJ1IjoibHF3aCJ9.ql_c5RLnVxO2kZEjDOaLuEtOMnQ8mznPqxTm3B0PLn4>*,
“a Western intelligence service is said to have passed on a tip to European
partner services as early as fall, i.e. shortly after the destruction,
according to which a Ukrainian commando was responsible for the
destruction.”
This is a case in which it seems Western intelligence agencies are making
progress. We’ll see if Ukraine feels similarly about what is revealed.
Leave a comment
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