GRGR(3) - The Map(s)

David Morris davidm at hrihci.com
Mon Jun 7 15:02:37 CDT 1999


Mexico has a map onto which he records the bomb hits AFTER the fact, right?
His insight is the ability to relate these strikes to a Poisson
Distribution.  The bombs FOLLOW the P.D., but he can't PREDICT where the
most likely next hits will be, RIGHT?

Some thoughts on Mexico's Map:

1.  It seems to me that this application of the P.D. formula has very little
practical value other than to project death-rates if population densities
were overlaid onto the map, or maybe property losses for insurance company
use.

2.  Like Jess, I too, am having trouble with the concept of a predictable
pattern which doesn't give one clues as to which squares would be safest or
most dangerous.  Wouldn't there be places on the map which don't conform to
this pattern?

3.  Also, I expect that over an extended time all squares would eventually
be hit, and thus no pattern would then exist, so this pattern has to have a
frame of time component distinguishing between recent and old hits, right?





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