More on the War

[David Morris]

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

February 7th, 2003 -- 9:58 AM EST // link)
Many Iraq hawks claim that once Saddam had a serious WMD capacity (i.e., more
than just some nerve gas) he'd use them against the United States. I've never
bought that. What I do think is that he might threaten it, or more likely use
it to threaten our allies in the region with it, and that would make him
extremely difficult for us to deal with. 

Now, one of the central premises of the realist/containment viewpoint on Iraq
("he's not suicidal, he could be deterred") is that Saddam may be evil but he's
fundamentally a rational actor. I haven't thought through all the implications
of this, but it occurs to me that we're now seeing a pretty clear partial
refutation of that thesis. 

We're about to go to war with Iraq. It may be a terrible idea. It may go badly
for us. We may get bogged down there for years. But one thing is absolutely
certain: it will go terribly for Saddam Hussein. His regime won't survive. And
he probably won't survive personally either. 

He could prevent this by making a credible show of disarming. But he's not.
He's quite literally courting his own destruction. Yes, one can figure issues
of pride, national honor, unwillingness to lose his WMD capacity, etc. But at
the end of the day he's courting his own destruction, sealing his fate. How
does that square with the idea that he's purely a rational actor, most
interested in his own survival? 

-- Josh Marshal

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