Israeli companies to gain from Iraqi oil, resources

[S.R. Prozak]

http://www.jta.org/page_view_story.asp?
strwebhead=Victory+in+Iraq+key+for+Israel&intcategoryid=1

For Israel, U.S. success or failure in Iraq has major consequences

By Leslie Susser

JERUSALEM, March 25 (JTA) — The war in Iraq may not be Israel’s war, as
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon likes to say — but the stakes for Israel could
hardly be higher.

If the United States wins a convincing victory, it could assure Israel’s
place in a more stable Middle East for years to come. If it does not,
Israel
could find itself the prime target of emboldened Middle Eastern radicals
and
face far greater threats to its existence than it does today.

An overwhelming American victory and the establishment of a pro-western
regime would remove a nonconventional — and possibly nuclear — threat to
Israel from a capricious rogue regime. Moreover, a pro-Western regime in
Baghdad would finally lay to rest one of Israel’s worst nightmares: a
united “Eastern Front” consisting of Iraq, Syria and Jordan, with
thousands of
tanks ready to bear down on Israel from Jordanian territory.

With Iraq, the most powerful of the three countries, out of the equation,
the balance of power would change dramatically. That in turn would make it
most unlikely that Jordan could be persuaded to forego its peace treaty
with
Israel, leaving Syria on its own and the “Eastern Front” notion devoid of
operational meaning.

A second major strategic benefit for Israel would be an American presence
opposite Iran, perhaps Israel’s most implacable foe. U.S. Secretary of
State
Colin Powell said recently that the United States had “suddenly”
discovered
that “Iran is much further along, with a far more robust nuclear weapons
development program, than anyone said it had.”

Powell was commenting on the fact that Iran managed to set up a centrifuge
plant near the town of Natanz, 200 miles south of Tehran, undetected by
Western intelligence agencies. The Iranians deny that they intend to
develop
nuclear weapons, but the centrifuges could be used to manufacture weapons-
grade uranium, enabling Iran to produce several nuclear bombs a year
beginning
in 2005.

A weakened Iraq, an American presence in the Persian Gulf and a credible
American threat to disarm Iran might slow down the Iranian nuclear
program.

American success in Iraq also might weaken the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis,
which threatens Israel from the north. Last year the Iranians delivered
over
700 rockets to the fundamentalist Shi’ite militia through Syria. Hezbollah
now
has 1,000 rockets in southern Lebanon, trained on Israeli targets.

The perception of American power and America readiness to use it could
lead
to Iran to rethink its ties with Hezbollah. It might also persuade Syria,
not
wanting to be held accountable for Hezbollah attacks on Israel, to rein in
the
organization.

Some Israeli analysts, including Sharon’s national security adviser,
Ephraim Halevy, say the ripple effect of American success even could lead
to
an Israel-Lebanon peace treaty, and possibly later to an accommodation
with
Syria.

In this optimistic scenario, the Syrians pull out of Lebanon, disarm
Hezbollah and seek a peace treaty with Israel as part of a vigorous new
effort
to curry favor with a victorious Washington. But even if things don’t go
that
far, the threat on Israel’s northern border is likely to diminish.

Last but not least, American victory in Iraq could impact favorably on the
Palestinian front. If Saddam is toppled and replaced by a less belligerent
and
more pragmatic regime — even one that isn’t exactly friendly toward
Israel —
that could serve as a model for change among the Palestinians.

Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat could be further distanced
from power and a new, reformed Palestinian leadership could help promote a
peaceful modus vivendi with Israel.

There are two possible negative outcomes. One is that the American
campaign
in Iraq proves ineffectual and Saddam survives with his regime intact. The
second, less drastic possibility is if fierce fighting leaves many
American
casualties, emboldening Arab radicals to think that it is possible to
stand up
to Western might — and making the United States far more wary of future
engagements in the Middle East.

In either case, the prognosis for Israel would be dire. If Saddam
survives,
he could go nuclear a few years down the road, and might target Israel in
revenge for what he calls the “American-Zionist conspiracy” against him.
Even
if he doesn’t go nuclear, he could still seek to threaten Israel by other
means.

Secondly, resurrection of the “Eastern Front” would become a theoretical
option, with a strong Iraq exerting pressure on Jordan to break its ties
with
Israel and rejoin the rejectionist front.

U.S. failure in Iraq also would encourage Iran to ignore American pressure
about its nuclear program and to produce nuclear weapons as soon as
possible.
Iran already has developed and tested a prototype missile, the Shihab 3,
which
can reach Israel with either conventional or non-conventional payloads.

The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah triangle also would get a boost from American
failure in Iraq. The recently published Argentinian Intelligence Services’
(SIDE) account of the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in
Buenos Aires by Iranian-controlled Hezbollah operatives indicates that the
present rulers of Iran will stop at nothing when it comes to Israel.

According to SIDE’S 11-volume investigation, Iran’s spiritual leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khameini, was personally involved in planning and approving
the
attack.

Indeed, an American setback in Iraq would encourage radical terrorists
throughout the world, and especially in the Middle East, to step up their
campaigns — and Israel would be a prime target.

As one pundit put it in the Israeli media: “From an Israeli point of view,
the success of the war is imperative. If pictures” of American POWs “like
those we saw on Sunday continue to stream out of Iraq, it won’t be long
before
extremists in the Arab world start scenting blood and ‘join the party.’ If
that happens, the northern border could heat up, motivation to carry out
terror in Israel will grow and moderate Arab regimes, whose stability is
vital
for Israel, will be at risk.”

Indeed, the radical threat could take its toll on moderate Arab regimes
too, leaving Israel in a region more volatile than ever, exposed to
terrorist
and possibly even nonconventional weapons attack from all quarters.

Israelis are keeping their fingers crossed for America. But they could
just
as easily be keeping their fingers crossed for themselves.

Leslie Susser is the diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Report.



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