The alien hypothesis?

[John Doe]

simply put: yes.

--- Joel Katz <mittelwerk at hotmail.com> wrote:

> sagan's theory was that life is sprouting up in the
> galaxy all the time, 
> even simulateneously -- but that advanced
> civilizations destroy themselves 
> before they can make contact.  think about it: 
> we've been radiating for 
> less than 150 years, and in that time we've already
> come within minutes of 
> extinction, and are probably even-odds for making it
> through the next 150.
> 
> set against a backdrop of cosmic time, the existence
> of other life is almost 
> a mathematical certainty -- whiile contact with it
> is highly improbable.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> >From: Blake Stacey <blake.stacey at ens-lyon.fr>
> >To: pynchon-l at waste.org
> >Subject: Re: The alien hypothesis?
> >Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2005 16:16:04 +0200
> >
> >Quoting jbor at bigpond.com:
> >
> >>Actually, "Science" does seem to spend an awful
> lot of time (and money)  
> >>investigating whether Mars could support, or has
> supported, organic  life 
> >>and so forth. I'd imagine that the probability of
> the existence of  "life" 
> >>elsewhere in the universe could be calculated
> scientiffically,  i.e. via 
> >>some sort of equation where the expanse of the
> known universe  is 
> >>moderated against the likelihood of environmental
> and chemical  conditions 
> >>needed to generate and sustain "life" manifesting 
> spontaneously. I 
> >>suspect that the odds would be quite good. 
> Hypothetically-speaking, that 
> >>is.
> >>
> >
> >Been done.  We have the "Drake Equation", named not
> for any Celtic dragon 
> >but
> >for astronomer Frank Drake, which takes the big
> question "Is there anybody 
> >out
> >there?" and divides up our uncertainty.  Each
> factor in the Drake Equation 
> >can
> >be estimated (or guesstimated) based on a different
> set of scientific 
> >findings.
> >The first number, R*, is the rate of star formation
> in the galaxy, which we 
> >can
> >figure out by looking through telescopes.  Other
> parameters, like f_L -- 
> >the
> >fraction of possibly life-bearing planets which in
> fact go on to develop 
> >life
> >-- must be estimated using biochemistry, molecular
> biology and geology.  
> >While
> >all of these variables have considerable "plus or
> minus" as regards their
> >values, the most contentious is probably the last,
> the number Drake called 
> >L. The variable L represents the average lifetime a
> civilization stays 
> >"alive". Drake estimated L at 10 years; Michael
> Shermer puts it at 420.  
> >(Pass the bong,
> >dude.)
> >
> >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
> >
> >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/420_(drug_culture)
> >
> >In Timothy Ferris's book **The Mind's Sky**, he
> quotes a poem which 
> >apparently
> >floated through the SETI community:
> >
> >>Of all the sad tales
> >>That SETI might tell
> >>The saddest would be
> >>A small value for L.
> >
> >Freeman Dyson pointed out, some years ago, that the
> Drake Equation should 
> >really
> >be called the "Drake Inequality".  According to
> Dyson, the equation needs 
> >one
> >more factor, a parameter to represent how many
> "daughter" civilizations are
> >colonized by each intelligent species.  The Drake
> Equation as it was 
> >originally
> >stated gives the **minimum** number of
> civilizations in the galaxy, but if
> >civilizations achieve interstellar spaceflight, the
> actual number would be
> >higher, possibly much higer.  At present, the only
> way to estimate this 
> >number
> >is to take an average over the values proposed in
> science-fiction novels.
> >
> >>As to "intelligent life" or UFOs, well, that'd be
> a separate equation.  Or 
> >>a derivative of the first. But the concept of
> "intelligent life" is  
> >>problematic in that it's another one of those
> self-defining systems or  
> >>semantic constructs. And, coming at it from
> another perspective, it's a  
> >>little but egotistical, if not downright
> solipsistic, to assume for  
> >>oneself the mantle of supreme being in all of
> existence.
> >>
> >
> >Don't wanna go there.  Murky waters.  Let me just
> say that the SETI people 
> >have
> >worked very hard to imagine what sort of
> communication might be possible 
> >with
> >species as different from humanity as scientists
> can imagine.  (As 
> >different,
> >that is, while still being consistent with known
> physical law.  Beings from 
> >the
> >Q Continuum need not apply.)
> >
> >Blake
> >
> >
> 
>
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