Putin's Counter Revolution

[alice malice]

The issue is not so much Crimea's independence but the future of Ukraine,
and more importantly, Russia's role in the region, in Europe, in the world.



The US has a huge relationship with Russia. We are partners on countless
projects and agreements and treaties.


And the world is one market. To punish Russia, the US has to drive down the
price of oil, not gas.To drive down gas prices, if possible, or to replace
Russian gas, if possible, would take decades. But the US should start on
it. In fact it has. But it's oil that makes Russia turn. And the US can
drive down the price of oil and should.



How we got here:


First, my argument is not for nuclear war, but deterrent. Has Ukraine
nuclear weapons, this problem would not exist. Putin would not dare send
troops into a nuclear armed Ukraine.

Second, my argument is that the spread of nuclear technology and arms can't
be stopped. Even nations, in my example, like Brasil, that have no current
threat on their boarders, that are net exporters of energy, will build
nuclear programs. Brasil has a nuclear submarine program.



Remember the Falkland Islands War? The United Kingdom and Argentina claim
control over the Falkland Islands. Has Argentina the bomb, things might
have been different.


Could the US maintain GTMO in Cuba if Castro had missiles?


The Russian military siege of Ukrainian military installations in Crimea.

 Russian President Putin contends that Russia had responded to a political
coup in Ukraine, sending thousands of Russian troops to take effective
control of Crimea because ethnic Russians there were being set upon by
Ukranian extremists.

After pressure from the US and Europe, Putin ordered troops involved in
military exercises inside Russia near Ukraine to return to base he conceded
that ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych has no political future. He
agreed to support  May elections.



He also claims, though the world is not naive and knows better, that the
armed forces in Crimea are local militias, not Russian troops, not Russian
trained those militias, and that the Russian military drills had nothing to
do with the crisis.


Putin is a murdering thug and a liar. He can't be trusted. The world must
punish him in the markets.


The US has offered Putin a way out; he can save face. It has offered a $1
billion American loan guarantee and technical financial help.

The US accuses Russia of trying to achieve its policy goals in Crimea by
force: the vote took place at the end of a gun.   If Crimeans want
independence, then they should determine that through a referendum,  but
international observers should be welcomed.


Russia is not the only nation or people with a vested interest in
protecting the rights of minorities in Ukraine: there are Bulgarians,
Romanians, Hungarians, Poles and Germans in Ukraine--some of whom are EU
passport holders, and Ukrainian nationalists are a real problem there.



What now?


A military response, from the US and Europe is not constructive and is not
on the table.


We don't need to escalate. War is not the answer. But must be punished for
his aggression.


The immediate objective is to prevent a military escalation of the crisis
and promote the resolution of concerns through negotiations and democratic
process.  Putin needs a way out, but the pressure must be kept on. So the
financial pressure is being applied and it is working.

The United States is not naïve; it knows that this small problem is part of
larger Russian expansionist program.


The US and Europe need to defuse this one carefully, or risk giving Russia
greater "reason" to expand.



Call it mad if you want. You are naive  if you think the world plans to
live in peace without nuclear weapons. It's not going to happen. The world
is moving in the other direction. These eapons are spreading. More nations
are in the club. More will be added. While non- proliferation treaties will
be made, vulnerable nations will need great security, and will build
programs.  Putin's expansionist ambitions must be punished to slow the
spread of weapons, but nothing will stop it.



Yes, the Ukraine would have been better off had it kept its weapons.



No, you put down your weapon first.


The world is a complex and dangerous one. Do the nukes make it more so. Yes
and no. Call it mad, but why assume that humans are not, that they are
rational, that reason or common sense can make peace in the world. This is
not only idealistic, which I admire, but naive. A naive view of the world
is dangerous and muddies the waters. There are no angels, only men. And man
is a beast.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4A5HsELQ7o
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