(np) The Future of Jihadism in Europe

[rich]

Germany is in an intriguing yet familar position. Some consider the bulwark
for european liberalism, a powerful economy, taking in a large amount of
refugees yet fighting on a two front battle against Isis and their ilk, NSU
and their ilk, along with what must be a steady loss of confidence in
various institutions (with the BfV, Volkswagen, the almost comical attempt
to build a new airport in Berlin)
Out of all the countries of Europe, we must have a Germany that leads
against so much that is seemingly headed in the wrong direction (Trump,
Brexit, rise of the French right, etc). No country's past weighs as heavy
as that of Germany's. The irony that it represents the future for liberal
democracy since the end of WW2 can't be lost on anyone.
Germany is the battleground, the bulwark. Forget the US, Britain and France
(the voices emerging there iare not pretty). Only Germany knows what depths
such voices have led to. But it needs partners. Its soul is on the line

rich

On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 5:12 AM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen <
lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:

>
> Here in Europe we don't feel like "satirizing" the issue these days ...
> Many things will change profoundly. Like it or not.  History is here again!
> And Hegghammer's article is a gem.
>
>
> Am 22.12.2016 um 10:30 schrieb John "I know nothing about the social
> sciences but like to comment on it" Bailey:
>
> "economically underperforming Muslim youth"
> "available jihadi entrepreneurs"
> "operational freedom for clandestine actors"
> Is there any novelist satirising the language of professional
> neoliberal terrorism commentary today? We're in old DeLillo territory
> here. But writing on terrorism is increasingly framed in economic
> terms, as is most well-shared writing online.
>
> On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 8:09 PM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen<lorentzen at hotmail.de> <lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:
>
> Thomas Hegghammer:
>
>
> ... If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse,
> it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the
> hard kind ... <
>
> http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/566/html
>
> This article presents a ten-year forecast for jihadism in Europe. Despite
> reaching historically high levels in recent years, violent Islamist activity
> in Europe may increase further over the long term due to four macro-trends:
> 1) expected growth in the number of economically underperforming Muslim
> youth, 2) expected growth in the number of available jihadi entrepreneurs,
> 3) persistent conflict in the Muslim world, and 4) continued operational
> freedom for clandestine actors on the Internet. Over the next decade, the
> jihadi attack plot frequency in Europe may follow a fluctuating curve with
> progressively higher peaks. Many things can undercut the trends and lead to
> a less ominous outcome, but the scenario is sufficiently likely to merit
> attention from policymakers.
>
>
>
> .
>
>
>
>
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