(np) The Future of Jihadism in Europe

[Kai Frederik Lorentzen]

Here in Europe we don't feel like "satirizing" the issue these days ... Many things will change profoundly. Like it or not.  History is here again! And Hegghammer's article is a gem.


Am 22.12.2016 um 10:30 schrieb John "I know nothing about the social sciences but like to comment on it" Bailey:

"economically underperforming Muslim youth"
"available jihadi entrepreneurs"
"operational freedom for clandestine actors"
Is there any novelist satirising the language of professional
neoliberal terrorism commentary today? We're in old DeLillo territory
here. But writing on terrorism is increasingly framed in economic
terms, as is most well-shared writing online.

On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 8:09 PM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen
<lorentzen at hotmail.de><mailto:lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:


Thomas Hegghammer:



... If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse,
it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the
hard kind ... <


http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/566/html

This article presents a ten-year forecast for jihadism in Europe. Despite
reaching historically high levels in recent years, violent Islamist activity
in Europe may increase further over the long term due to four macro-trends:
1) expected growth in the number of economically underperforming Muslim
youth, 2) expected growth in the number of available jihadi entrepreneurs,
3) persistent conflict in the Muslim world, and 4) continued operational
freedom for clandestine actors on the Internet. Over the next decade, the
jihadi attack plot frequency in Europe may follow a fluctuating curve with
progressively higher peaks. Many things can undercut the trends and lead to
a less ominous outcome, but the scenario is sufficiently likely to merit
attention from policymakers.




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