(np) The Future of Jihadism in Europe

[ish mailian]

Kai, we certainly appreciate your interest in and your perspective on
our mad politics here in America and we are always glad to read the
views of all our European friends and friends from around the world.
And, of course, we appreciate your writing to us in English.

Peace and Merry Christmas,

Ish

On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 3:28 AM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen
<lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:
>
> I read this before. Was it in the New York Times? I think so. Anyway, I
> don't share the thoughts at all. Neither do I think that democratic events
> like the Brexit or the election of Donald Trump are primarily bad, nor can I
> accept the picture of Germany as - what a pathetic wording! -
> "represent[ing] the future of liberal democracy". Merkel and her cronies? Or
> Cem Özdemir from the Greens (and graduate of the young leader program of the
> American Council on Germany) who started to roll the war drum for Hillary
> ("We need a No Flight Zone for Syria!") about two weeks before the US
> election? (Me I loved it to see his face on TV growing longer and longer
> during the election night.) And regarding "liberal democracy" let me say two
> things: Trump or Marine Le Pen or Frauke Petry don't want to call off
> liberal parliamentarism (a more realistic term than 'democracy'), do they?
> And, second, of course we here in Germany need more direct democracy in form
> of plebiscites on the federal level! The Italians and the British just had
> it. I want that too for Germany. That you seriously speak of a "two front
> battle" shows, well, how far away from things you are. At least you, unlike
> the other P-listers who contributed to the thread, have a real interest in
> Germany, and I appreciate this!  But Germania is NOT the poster child of
> Western liberalism. Never was, never will be ---
>
>
> Am 22.12.2016 um 23:22 schrieb rich:
>
> Germany is in an intriguing yet familar position. Some consider the bulwark
> for european liberalism, a powerful economy, taking in a large amount of
> refugees yet fighting on a two front battle against Isis and their ilk, NSU
> and their ilk, along with what must be a steady loss of confidence in
> various institutions (with the BfV, Volkswagen, the almost comical attempt
> to build a new airport in Berlin)
> Out of all the countries of Europe, we must have a Germany that leads
> against so much that is seemingly headed in the wrong direction (Trump,
> Brexit, rise of the French right, etc). No country's past weighs as heavy as
> that of Germany's. The irony that it represents the future for liberal
> democracy since the end of WW2 can't be lost on anyone.
> Germany is the battleground, the bulwark. Forget the US, Britain and France
> (the voices emerging there iare not pretty). Only Germany knows what depths
> such voices have led to. But it needs partners. Its soul is on the line
>
> rich
>
> On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 5:12 AM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen
> <lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Here in Europe we don't feel like "satirizing" the issue these days ...
>> Many things will change profoundly. Like it or not.  History is here again!
>> And Hegghammer's article is a gem.
>>
>>
>> Am 22.12.2016 um 10:30 schrieb John "I know nothing about the social
>> sciences but like to comment on it" Bailey:
>>
>> "economically underperforming Muslim youth"
>> "available jihadi entrepreneurs"
>> "operational freedom for clandestine actors"
>> Is there any novelist satirising the language of professional
>> neoliberal terrorism commentary today? We're in old DeLillo territory
>> here. But writing on terrorism is increasingly framed in economic
>> terms, as is most well-shared writing online.
>>
>> On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 8:09 PM, Kai Frederik Lorentzen
>> <lorentzen at hotmail.de> wrote:
>>
>> Thomas Hegghammer:
>>
>> ... If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse,
>> it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and
>> the
>> hard kind ... <
>>
>> http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/566/html
>>
>> This article presents a ten-year forecast for jihadism in Europe. Despite
>> reaching historically high levels in recent years, violent Islamist
>> activity
>> in Europe may increase further over the long term due to four
>> macro-trends:
>> 1) expected growth in the number of economically underperforming Muslim
>> youth, 2) expected growth in the number of available jihadi entrepreneurs,
>> 3) persistent conflict in the Muslim world, and 4) continued operational
>> freedom for clandestine actors on the Internet. Over the next decade, the
>> jihadi attack plot frequency in Europe may follow a fluctuating curve with
>> progressively higher peaks. Many things can undercut the trends and lead
>> to
>> a less ominous outcome, but the scenario is sufficiently likely to merit
>> attention from policymakers.
>>
>>
>> .
>>
>
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