Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[ish mailian]

Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.

 WE all have an interest in the markets.

But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
and Central Bank watchers of us all.

And there has been little else to pay attention to.

The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
predict the future.

Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
attention to Trump.

Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
on.

Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
response to event in China and in the oil markets

Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
invested at low, even negative rates.

So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.

On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
> I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be paying
> attention to here in the states?
>
> https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
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Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l