Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[gary webb]

I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the future
Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are they
going to handle inflation?

On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:

> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>
>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>
> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>
> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>
> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
> predict the future.
>
> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
> attention to Trump.
>
> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
> on.
>
> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>
> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
> invested at low, even negative rates.
>
> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>
> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be
> paying
> > attention to here in the states?
> >
> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-
> and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
> -
> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>
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