Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[ish mailian]

That it has taken so long and that such drastic, unprecedented
monetary policies have been used with only limited success suggests
that the force of deflation across Japan, Europe, the US and elsewhere
was quite powerful.

An underestimated deflationary force. The first great depression of
the century.

Of course the policy response to it form the central banks was often
undermined by counterproductive and destructive fiscal
policies--austerity.

That is where, of course, liberals will focus their critiques, but so
much of the force of deflation can be traced directly to China and to
automation and productivity stagnation.

Trump & Co. are on to it.

 Other factors, such as demographics, aging populations,  the general
malaise of the millennials and the late late late capital glut, supply
and exhausted demand are important too.

The fear of immigrants in places like Japan is also a factor.

In Germany, that belief that in the cult of prudence and work as
opposed to the club-med cult of Greece and the PIIGS....is also a
factor. Politics is a factor and so culture.

There is, of course, lots of inflation if you look close. In the
developing economies, many prone to hyperinflation and in tuition and
medical costs. The cost of tuition is up over 1000% since 1980 and
medical costs are up by over 500%.

The price of food. Down. And everything from China. Buy a TV lately?



On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 10:17 AM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> wrote:
> Inflation starts in Germany?
>
> https://twitter.com/charlesforelle/status/818113944183341056
>
> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market; no one
>> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>>
>> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.
>> Nada. Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism seem to
>> have a deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>>
>> No one knows anything.
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from my iPad
>>
>> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the future
>> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are they going
>> to handle inflation?
>>
>> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>>>
>>>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>>>
>>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
>>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>>>
>>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>>>
>>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
>>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>>> predict the future.
>>>
>>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
>>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>>> attention to Trump.
>>>
>>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
>>> on.
>>>
>>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
>>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>>>
>>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
>>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
>>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
>>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
>>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>>>
>>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be
>>> > paying
>>> > attention to here in the states?
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>>> -
>>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>
>>
>
-
Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l