Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[Mark Kohut]

Inflation starts in Germany?

https://twitter.com/charlesforelle/status/818113944183341056

On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> wrote:

> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market; no one
> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>
> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.
> Nada. Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism seem to
> have a deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>
> No one knows anything.
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the future
> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are they
> going to handle inflation?
>
> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>>
>>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>>
>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>>
>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>>
>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>> predict the future.
>>
>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>> attention to Trump.
>>
>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
>> on.
>>
>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>>
>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>>
>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be
>> paying
>> > attention to here in the states?
>> >
>> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-a
>> nd-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>> -
>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>
>
>
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