Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[ish mailian]

Chase,
I agree with all that you say here. I didn't intend to malign a group or
generation and I understand why someone might think I did.

On Sunday, January 8, 2017, Chase Carnot <chase.carnot at gmail.com> wrote:

> The "malaise of the millennials" has a nice ring to it. But the only truth
> in it is that every 'generation' maligns the next. Maybe millennials would
> be more productive (many are quite productive, in fact) if they weren't
> dealing with the failed economic policies of the seemingly-endless Reagan
> Era (see Political Realignment Theory and Political Time Theory). Of
> course, that's actually speaks to your point about inflation. Sorry, but
> generational antagonism always bothers me, it being a subtle form of
> reactionaryism.
>
> (In the interest of full disclosure: I was born in 1985, which makes me a
> millennial at last check. Never mind the fact that for as little as I have
> in common with someone born in 1980, I have far less in common with someone
> born in 2000. The arbitrary nature of all dividing lines, it was ever thus.)
>
> https://www.wired.com/2014/01/thompson_generation/
> https://xkcd.com/1227/
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HFwok9SlQQ
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 1:04 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','ishmailian at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>
>> That it has taken so long and that such drastic, unprecedented
>> monetary policies have been used with only limited success suggests
>> that the force of deflation across Japan, Europe, the US and elsewhere
>> was quite powerful.
>>
>> An underestimated deflationary force. The first great depression of
>> the century.
>>
>> Of course the policy response to it form the central banks was often
>> undermined by counterproductive and destructive fiscal
>> policies--austerity.
>>
>> That is where, of course, liberals will focus their critiques, but so
>> much of the force of deflation can be traced directly to China and to
>> automation and productivity stagnation.
>>
>> Trump & Co. are on to it.
>>
>>  Other factors, such as demographics, aging populations,  the general
>> malaise of the millennials and the late late late capital glut, supply
>> and exhausted demand are important too.
>>
>> The fear of immigrants in places like Japan is also a factor.
>>
>> In Germany, that belief that in the cult of prudence and work as
>> opposed to the club-med cult of Greece and the PIIGS....is also a
>> factor. Politics is a factor and so culture.
>>
>> There is, of course, lots of inflation if you look close. In the
>> developing economies, many prone to hyperinflation and in tuition and
>> medical costs. The cost of tuition is up over 1000% since 1980 and
>> medical costs are up by over 500%.
>>
>> The price of food. Down. And everything from China. Buy a TV lately?
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 10:17 AM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com
>> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','mark.kohut at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>> > Inflation starts in Germany?
>> >
>> > https://twitter.com/charlesforelle/status/818113944183341056
>> >
>> > On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com
>> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','mark.kohut at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market; no
>> one
>> >> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>> >>
>> >> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.
>> >> Nada. Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism seem
>> to
>> >> have a deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>> >>
>> >> No one knows anything.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Sent from my iPad
>> >>
>> >> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com
>> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','gwebb8686 at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the
>> future
>> >> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are they
>> going
>> >> to handle inflation?
>> >>
>> >> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com
>> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','ishmailian at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>> >>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>> >>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>> >>>
>> >>>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>> >>>
>> >>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
>> >>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>> >>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>> >>>
>> >>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>> >>>
>> >>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be ending,
>> >>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>> >>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>> >>> predict the future.
>> >>>
>> >>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would be
>> >>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>> >>> attention to Trump.
>> >>>
>> >>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>> >>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and so
>> >>> on.
>> >>>
>> >>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>> >>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
>> >>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>> >>>
>> >>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>> >>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>> >>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>> >>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
>> >>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
>> >>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>> >>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>> >>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>> >>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
>> >>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
>> >>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>> >>>
>> >>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>> >>>
>> >>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com
>> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','gwebb8686 at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>> >>> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should be
>> >>> > paying
>> >>> > attention to here in the states?
>> >>> >
>> >>> >
>> >>> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-a
>> nd-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>> >>> -
>> >>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>> -
>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>
>
>
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