Should We be paying attention to the bond market?

[Chase Carnot]

No problem. I was trying to soften my response but it still came off more
aggressive than I intended.

On Mon, Jan 9, 2017 at 5:23 AM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:

> Chase,
> I agree with all that you say here. I didn't intend to malign a group or
> generation and I understand why someone might think I did.
>
>
> On Sunday, January 8, 2017, Chase Carnot <chase.carnot at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The "malaise of the millennials" has a nice ring to it. But the only
>> truth in it is that every 'generation' maligns the next. Maybe millennials
>> would be more productive (many are quite productive, in fact) if they
>> weren't dealing with the failed economic policies of the seemingly-endless
>> Reagan Era (see Political Realignment Theory and Political Time Theory). Of
>> course, that's actually speaks to your point about inflation. Sorry, but
>> generational antagonism always bothers me, it being a subtle form of
>> reactionaryism.
>>
>> (In the interest of full disclosure: I was born in 1985, which makes me a
>> millennial at last check. Never mind the fact that for as little as I have
>> in common with someone born in 1980, I have far less in common with someone
>> born in 2000. The arbitrary nature of all dividing lines, it was ever thus.)
>>
>> https://www.wired.com/2014/01/thompson_generation/
>> https://xkcd.com/1227/
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HFwok9SlQQ
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 1:04 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> That it has taken so long and that such drastic, unprecedented
>>> monetary policies have been used with only limited success suggests
>>> that the force of deflation across Japan, Europe, the US and elsewhere
>>> was quite powerful.
>>>
>>> An underestimated deflationary force. The first great depression of
>>> the century.
>>>
>>> Of course the policy response to it form the central banks was often
>>> undermined by counterproductive and destructive fiscal
>>> policies--austerity.
>>>
>>> That is where, of course, liberals will focus their critiques, but so
>>> much of the force of deflation can be traced directly to China and to
>>> automation and productivity stagnation.
>>>
>>> Trump & Co. are on to it.
>>>
>>>  Other factors, such as demographics, aging populations,  the general
>>> malaise of the millennials and the late late late capital glut, supply
>>> and exhausted demand are important too.
>>>
>>> The fear of immigrants in places like Japan is also a factor.
>>>
>>> In Germany, that belief that in the cult of prudence and work as
>>> opposed to the club-med cult of Greece and the PIIGS....is also a
>>> factor. Politics is a factor and so culture.
>>>
>>> There is, of course, lots of inflation if you look close. In the
>>> developing economies, many prone to hyperinflation and in tuition and
>>> medical costs. The cost of tuition is up over 1000% since 1980 and
>>> medical costs are up by over 500%.
>>>
>>> The price of food. Down. And everything from China. Buy a TV lately?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sun, Jan 8, 2017 at 10:17 AM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>> > Inflation starts in Germany?
>>> >
>>> > https://twitter.com/charlesforelle/status/818113944183341056
>>> >
>>> > On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:54 PM, Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >> " if there's reincarnation, I want to come back as the bond market;
>>> no one
>>> >> fucks with them"--JAmes Carville
>>> >>
>>> >> Inflation has been predicted since Tarp & Obama's stimulus, at least.
>>> >> Nada. Kaufman has wanted some.      Some parts of late capitalism
>>> seem to
>>> >> have a deflationary avoidance problem at the moment.
>>> >>
>>> >> No one knows anything.
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >> Sent from my iPad
>>> >>
>>> >> On Jan 5, 2017, at 6:32 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >> I think one of the many things most that is off-putting about the
>>> future
>>> >> Trump administration, the list grows longer every day, is how are
>>> they going
>>> >> to handle inflation?
>>> >>
>>> >> On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM, ish mailian <ishmailian at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Of course we should pay attention to rates and the bond markets. And
>>> >>> lots of other markets too. Like, the oil markets, the commodities
>>> >>> markets, the equities markets the Tulip markets.
>>> >>>
>>> >>>  WE all have an interest in the markets.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> But recently a fascination with the strange and unusual bond markets,
>>> >>> the extraordinary policies of central banks and so on, has made Fed
>>> >>> and Central Bank watchers of us all.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> And there has been little else to pay attention to.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> The history is interesting. The long bull market in UST may be
>>> ending,
>>> >>> or not, the history can't tell us much about the future of the bond
>>> >>> market, though that doesn't stop analysts from using history to
>>> >>> predict the future.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Even if History could help us predict the future of rates few would
>>> be
>>> >>> paying attention to the history of rates because everyone is paying
>>> >>> attention to Trump.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Trump  and the Fiscal plans and how the Fed may or may not increase
>>> >>> rates, as they have announced, based on data, or based on Trump and
>>> so
>>> >>> on.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Recently the Fed, expanded its triple not duel mandate when it acted
>>> >>> not  strictly as it said it would, in a data dependent manner, but in
>>> >>> response to event in China and in the oil markets
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Of course the Fed is charged with employment, the price level or
>>> >>> inflation, and stable low interest rates. And in a global economy,
>>> >>> it's impossible to ignore China, but oil is a different matter.
>>> >>> Nevertheless the Fed under Yellen maintained a dovish position longer
>>> >>> that might have otherwise because of events and markets and data that
>>> >>> have little to no influence on the mandates it is charged with. Now
>>> >>> that Trump and the oil and gas and banking billionaire's club are
>>> >>> running things, we can expect a weakening of the Yellen Fed.
>>> >>> Eventually a new Fed.  But will that mean higher  interest rates? The
>>> >>> Banks will push for that. But the losses will be enormous. So much is
>>> >>> invested at low, even negative rates.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> So, yeah, we better all pay attention to the bond market.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 7:58 PM, gary webb <gwebb8686 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>> >>> > I wonder in up-tick in yields is the economic harbinger we should
>>> be
>>> >>> > paying
>>> >>> > attention to here in the states?
>>> >>> >
>>> >>> >
>>> >>> > https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-a
>>> nd-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
>>> >>> -
>>> >>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >
>>> -
>>> Pynchon-l / http://www.waste.org/mail/?list=pynchon-l
>>>
>>
>>
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