Serious news from Europe on Ukraine

Mark Kohut mark.kohut at gmail.com
Wed Feb 9 22:22:29 UTC 2022 

Even I can find news about that, in that biased non-mainstream news agency
(I'm sure) Al Jazerra. from 2015.

"Before the ink was even dry on the so-called Minsk II ceasefire agreement,
Russian-backed separatists were attacking, killing, and wounding Ukrainian
soldiers defending Debaltseve.

Debaltseve is an important town that serves as a key transport hub between
Luhansk and Donetsk. Whoever controls it, also controls the Donbas region.
In recent weeks the town has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, in
the same way that Donetsk airport once was."

Even though the town has been the scene of bloody fighting during the days
leading up to the peace negotiations, the ceasefire agreement did not
mention Debaltseve at all. This glaring omission was interpreted in
different ways by different people. The Ukrainians thought the ceasefire
included all of the contested areas in Luhansk and Donetsk, especially
Debaltseve. The Russian-backed separatists believed that Debaltseve must
have been exempted from the ceasefire agreement because it was not
specifically mentioned.
Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda

After days of bloody fighting, Debaltseve was finally captured by the
separatists. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian
military units defending Debaltseve were withdrawn in an “orderly and
pre-planned manner” – or in other words they retreated.

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Play Video

Video Duration 02 minutes 21 seconds 02:21
Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda
Ukraine crisis tops UN Security Council agenda

After days of bloody fighting, Debaltseve was finally captured by the
separatists. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian
military units defending Debaltseve were withdrawn in an “orderly and
pre-planned manner” – or in other words they retreated.

Doomed from the beginning

One can assume that Debaltseve (and the Russian occupied Crimea Peninsula)
was ignored in the ceasefire agreement because consensus could not be found
on how it was to be addressed. Do not forget, the ceasefire was agreed
after a marathon 18-hour session. French and German mediators were so
hell-bent on getting a peace deal – any peace deal – to thwart the US drive
to arm the Ukrainians that they were willing to ignore some of the more
contentious issues like Debaltseve and Crimea. Kiev is now suffering dearly
from this lazy and rushed approach to “peacemaking”.

So far the ceasefire appears to be benefiting everyone but the Ukrainians.
Since the agreement went into effect last week dozens of Ukrainian soldiers
have been killed and hundreds more have been wounded. The grad missiles
continue to fly and Russian T-72BM tanks continue to roll. According to
reports, the separatists violated the agreement 139 times
<http://news.sky.com/story/1428633/ukraine-truce-broken-139-times-on-first-day>
 in the first 24 hours alone – almost once every 10 minutes.

The deadline to remove “heavy weapons” – itself a terribly vague term – has
come and gone with no action by either side. This provision in the
ceasefire agreement was destined to fail because there is so little trust
between the warring parties. Many prisoners who were supposed to be swapped
under the agreement are still detained. Terms like “line of contact” and
“security zones” are used throughout the ceasefire agreement; these are
terms used to describe frozen conflicts, not terms to describe conflict
resolution.

Whether it is in Georgia, Azerbaijan or eastern Ukraine, it is in Russia's
interests to keep these conflicts frozen. Russia derives much of its
regional influence through these frozen conflicts.

This ceasefire agreement has stalled the drive by some in the US to arm the
Ukrainians. The agreement has also created  a false sense of security in
Kiev which has allowed the separatists to take the offensive against the
Ukrainian military. As long as the separatists keep attaining victories,
Vladimir Putin will continue to support them. This week it was Debaltseve.
Next week it will be Mariupol.

Russia loves frozen conflicts

Moscow’s abysmal track record at implementing ceasefires and peace deals
means that nobody should expect that Russia will not use its influence to
tame the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Six-and-a-half years later Russia
is still in violation of the 2008 peace agreement signed to end the war
against Georgia. Russia still has its troops based in areas where they are
not supposed to be and Moscow still prevents international observers from
crossing into South Ossetia and Abkhazia even though they patrol freely in
the rest of Georgia.

Or look at Russia’s involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/02/minsk-mediation-armenia-azerbaijan-karabakh-150217044034179.html>conflict.
Even though Russia, along with the US and France, form part of the
so-called Minsk Group – created to find a peaceful resolution to the
conflict – Moscow still remains the biggest weapons supplier to Armenia and
Azerbaijan. How Russia is supposed to broker peace while selling billions
of dollars in high-end weaponry is anyone’s guess.

Whether it is in Georgia, Azerbaijan or eastern Ukraine, it is in Russia’s
interests to keep these conflicts frozen. Russia derives much of its
regional influence through these frozen conflicts. Bringing these conflicts
to a peaceful conclusion would only decrease Russia’s influence in the
region.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is a reminder that implementing the
ceasefire agreement is often far more difficult than signing a ceasefire
agreement.

Ceasefires are messy, and it is wishful thinking to believe that local
commanders on the ground would not interrupt the agreed text in a way that
best suits their particular local situation. However, the scale of the
fighting witnessed within hours and days of the agreement going into force
has proven that Minsk II is dead and that Russia has no desire but to
escalate the violence.

Russia knows that a Ukraine in perpetual conflict will be a Ukraine that
never joins the Euro-Atlantic community. This is Russia’s ultimate goal and
Moscow will do whatever it takes to make it happen.
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*Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and
Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think-tank. He previously served
as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a
commissioned officer in the United States army.*

*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.*
------------------------------

   - [image: Luke Coffey]
   <https://www.aljazeera.com/author/luke_coffey_201412310048630144>
   Luke Coffey
   <https://www.aljazeera.com/author/luke_coffey_201412310048630144>
   Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and
   Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think tank. He previously served
   as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a
   commissioned officer in the United States army.

------------------------------
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On Wed, Feb 9, 2022 at 4:52 PM Hübschräuber via Pynchon-l <
pynchon-l at waste.org> wrote:

> "The treaty was dead on day one after its signing as Moscow’s regular army
> with their proxies attacked and took Debaltseve."
>
> Some time ago, if I remember correctly, you chose not to address my reply
> to that talking point.
>
> Here it is again:
>
> -- This is a controversial claim. As you surely know but inexplicably fail
> to mention, Debaltseve was discussed in Minsk. Poroshenko did not admit
> that his troops were surrounded and therefore saw no reason for them to
> surrender:
>
> "The most important question, the question of the ceasefire, threatened
> to derail the whole meeting. Vladimir Putin presented his trump card.
> His trump card is Debaltseve. In the small town in eastern Ukraine, 70
> km northeast of Donetsk, 5000 men of the Ukrainian armed forces are
> encircled. That's nearly a third of the soldiers Kiev currently has on
> the front lines, one-sixth of all its forces. That weakened the
> Ukrainian president's negotiating position. Putin demanded that
> Ukrainian soldiers surrender before a cease-fire could even be
> discussed. Poroshenko became agitated. There was no cauldron near
> Debaltseve, he said. And the condition of Putin, with whom he is on
> familiar terms, is totally unacceptable, he said. Never, never will he
> hand over Debaltseve."
>
>
> https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/die-verhandlungen-von-minsk-ein-russisches-spiel-13428669.html
>
> As I understand it, Debaltseve was therefore not included in the
> agreement. --
>
> Would you mind addressing the issue now?
> --
> Pynchon-L: https://waste.org/mailman/listinfo/pynchon-l
>

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