As someone said: Cold War fantasies, just Putin's, not mine.

[Mark Kohut]

Ukraine and Russia
Russia’s military build-up enters a more dangerous phaseNew satellite
images show troops and equipment massing ever-closer to Ukraine
[image: Russian military vehicles mass in Rechitsa, Belarus]
FEB 11TH 2022
Russia is engaged in the largest military build-up in Europe since the cold
war. It has demanded that nato pull back from eastern Europe and rule out
Ukraine joining the alliance. Weeks of diplomacy have produced little. On
February 11th Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security
adviser, warned that “the threat is now immediate”. Mr Biden reportedly
phoned European allies to tell them that an attack was likely.
Around 100 Russian battalion tactical groups—fighting formations of 1,000
or so troops, accompanied by air defence, artillery and logistics—have
gathered on Ukraine’s borders with Russia and Belarus. The build-up has
entered a new phase. Russian units are heading from large bases into
staging areas near the border. Troops are moving to link up with their
equipment. Vital enablers for war, like field hospitals and engineering
units, are being put into place. All of this is visible. America and its
nato allies scrutinise Russia’s mobilisation using spy satellites,
surveillance flights and other means of gathering intelligence.
But in the 21st century, others are watching, too. Open-source
intelligence, known as osint, is a flourishing field. Journalists,
researchers and amateur enthusiasts use commercial-satellite imagery,
videos posted on social media, ship and aircraft-tracking websites and
other publicly available sources to see military forces moving and massing,
nearly in real time. These techniques are being applied to the
Russia-Ukraine crisis.
to understand why the build-up now looks more threatening, start with
Yelnya, a base 125km from Russia’s border with Belarus, normally home to
the 144th Guards Motorised Rifle Division. In November last year Yelnya
began to fill with equipment from the 41st Combined Arms Army, a high-level
formation that typically includes several divisions and is based more than
3,000km away in Siberia. According to Janes, a defence-intelligence firm,
satellite images taken in late January showed troops had begun to occupy
the tents. Internal heating melted the snow on top; the surrounding ground
turned into a muddy slush, indicating heavy footfall (move the slider below
to see the change).