Fwd: NYT on the situation, part four

Sun Feb 13 10:55:29 UTC 2022

But this situation, American officials say, is very different. Washington’s
claims about Russia’s troop buildup have been confirmed by commercial
satellite imagery
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-buildup.html>
 of a quality previously unavailable. The details of Moscow’s secret
disinformation plots are in line with the Kremlin’s propaganda campaigns
that play out on social media platforms and have been tracked by
independent researchers
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/us/politics/russia-ukraine-propaganda-disinformation.html>
.

Most important, the officials said, there is a fundamental distinction
between Iraq in 2003 and Ukraine in 2022. “In Iraq, intelligence was used
and deployed from this very podium to start a war,” Mr. Sullivan said on
Friday. “We are trying to stop a war.”

The last time Russia moved against Ukraine, in 2014, intelligence officials
blocked the Obama administration from sharing what they knew. But the Biden
administration has studied those mistakes. The new disclosures reflect the
influence of Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and
William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, who have shown a willingness to
declassify information in an effort to disrupt Russian planning,
administration officials said.

“We have learned a lot, especially since 2014, about how Russia uses the
information space as part of its overall security and military apparatus,”
said Emily J. Horne, the spokeswoman for the National Security Council.
“And we have learned a lot about how to deny them some impact in that
space.”

One U.S. intelligence official said that when the country’s spy agencies
have information that could help the world make better judgments about
Russian activity, it should be released, as long as the government can
avoid exposing how the information was collected or who passed it along.

It is, according to some strategists, a full-fledged information battle.

“I think it is great,” said Beth Sanner, a former top intelligence official
who regularly briefed President Donald J. Trump. “My guess is that these
disclosures are freaking the Kremlin and the security services out. And,
more important, it can narrow Putin’s options and make him think twice.”

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Continue reading the main story
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/politics/russia-information-putin-biden.html#after-story-ad-3>
The Ukrainian government has expressed unease with the American
disclosures. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that “too much
information” about a possible Russian offensive was sowing unnecessary fear.

For all the disclosures, the Biden administration has provided no evidence
of the disinformation plots they say they have uncovered. Intelligence
officials have argued that sharing details would give Russia clues to how
they work. That, in turn, would allow Moscow to “plug the leaks” and would
amount to disarming in the middle of an information war, officials said.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, Feb 13, 2022 at 5:53 AM
Subject: Fwd: NYT on the situation, part three
To: pynchon -l <pynchon-l at waste.org>

But the disclosures are complicated by history. Before the United States’
invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration released intelligence
that officials said justified pre-emptive action, including purported
intercepts
<https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/world/threats-responses-powell-s-address-presenting-deeply-troubling-evidence-iraq.html>
 of Iraqi military conversations, photos of mobile biological weapons labs
and statements accusing Baghdad of building a fleet of drones to launch a
chemical attack
<https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021007-8.html>
 on the United States. The material was all wrong, reliant on sources who
lied, incorrect interpretations of Iraq’s actions and senior officials who
looked at raw intelligence and saw what they wanted to see.

(I have to stop the cutting and pasting when pictures appear)

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, Feb 13, 2022 at 5:51 AM
Subject: Fwd: NYT on the situation, part two
To: pynchon -l <pynchon-l at waste.org>

It is an unusual gambit, in part because Mr. Biden has repeatedly made
clear he has no intention of sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine. In
effect, the administration is warning the world of an urgent threat, not to
make the case for a war but to try to prevent one.

The hope is that disclosing Mr. Putin’s plans will disrupt them, perhaps
delaying an invasion and buying more time for diplomacy, or even giving Mr.
Putin a chance to reconsider the political, economic and human costs of an
invasion.

At the same time, Biden administration officials said they had a narrower
and more realistic goal: They want to make it more difficult for Mr. Putin
to justify an invasion with lies, undercutting his standing on the global
stage and building support for a tougher response.

Intelligence agencies, prodded by the White House, have declassified
information, which in turn has been briefed to Congress, shared with
reporters and discussed by Pentagon and State Department spokesmen.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, Feb 13, 2022 at 5:49 AM
Subject: NYT on the situation, part one
To: pynchon -l <pynchon-l at waste.org>

U.S. Battles Putin by Disclosing His Next Possible Moves

Declassified information is part of a campaign to complicate what officials
say are Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine.

   -
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   [image: Julian E. Barnes]
<https://www.nytimes.com/by/julian-e-barnes>[image:
   Helene Cooper] <https://www.nytimes.com/by/helene-cooper>

   By Julian E. Barnes <https://www.nytimes.com/by/julian-e-barnes> and Helene
   Cooper <https://www.nytimes.com/by/helene-cooper>
   Feb. 12, 2022

   WASHINGTON — After decades of getting schooled in information warfare by
   President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States is trying to beat
   the master at his own game.

   In recent weeks, the Biden administration has detailed the movement of
   Russian special operation forces to Ukraine’s borders,
   <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/world/europe/russia-troops-belarus-border-ukraine.html>
    exposed a Russian plan to create a video of a faked atrocity
   <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion-pretext.html>
    as a pretext for an invasion, outlined Moscow’s war plans, warned that
   an invasion
   <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion.html>
    would result in possibly thousands of deaths and hinted that Russian
   officers had doubts about Mr. Putin.

   Then, on Friday, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security
   adviser, told reporters at the White House that the United States was
   seeing signs of Russian escalation and that there was a “credible prospect”
   of immediate military action. Other officials said the announcement was
   prompted by new intelligence that signaled an invasion could begin as soon
   as Wednesday.

   All told, the extraordinary series of disclosures — unfolding almost as
   quickly as information is collected and assessed — has amounted to one of
   the most aggressive releases of intelligence by the United States since the
   Cuban missile crisis, current and former officials say.

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