Fwd: NYT on the situation, part seven

Sun Feb 13 11:03:38 UTC 2022

The United States began disclosing Russian maneuvering in early December
when it declassified intelligence assessments
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html> that
predicted Russia could eventually mass 175,000 troops for an invasion of
Ukraine.
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
------------------------------
Card 1 of 5

A brewing conflict. Antagonism
<https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
between
Ukraine
<https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>and
Russia
<https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
has
been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian
territory, annexing Crimea
<https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
 and whipping up a rebellion
<https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/26/world/europe/russian-artillery-fires-into-ukraine-kiev-says.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
in
the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015
<https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/europe/ukraine-cease-fire-negotiated-in-minsk.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
but peace has been elusive
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
.

A spike in hostilities. Russia has been gradually building
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>up
forces
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
 near its border with Ukraine
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/04/us/us-intelligence-russia-military-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
and the Kremlin’s messaging toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew
in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
to
attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.

Preventing an invasion. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that
violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/world/europe/russia-putin-belarus-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
in
Ukraine. Since then, the United States, NATO and Russia have been engaged
in a whirlwind of diplomacy
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/world/russia-ukraine-minsk-accords.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
aimed
at averting that outcome.

The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has
increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat
to his country
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/europe/putin-nato-russia-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
said that Moscow’s growing military presence on the Ukrainian border was a
response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.

Rising tension. Western countries have tried to maintain a dialogue with
Moscow
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talks.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>.
But the Biden administration warned that the U.S. could throw its weight
behind Ukraine
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
in
case of an invasion. France, Germany and Poland also warned Russia of
consequences
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/world/europe/ukraine-russia-macron-scholz-duda-putin-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
if
it launched incursions into Ukraine.

   -
   -
   -
   -
   -

Russia struck back that month with its own allegations. In a claim repeated
on social media and Moscow-aligned conspiracy sites, the Russian defense
minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said on Dec. 21 that some 120 military
contractors from the United States had moved “an unidentified chemical
component” into Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine “to carry out
provocations.” <http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67402>

While the U.S. allegations of the Russian troop buildup have been verified
by commercial satellite imagery, there is no evidence for the Russian
claims, which American officials have called completely false.

Even before the United States began disclosing Russian military plans and
plots, Ms. Haines decided to share more intelligence with allies, leading
to her visit to Brussels on Nov. 17. The Biden administration was
determined not to see a repeat of 2014, when NATO was confused and caught
by surprise when Russian forces took over Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula
largely unopposed.

Senior Obama administration officials recalled their frustration when the
intelligence agencies would not allow the White House to tell NATO, let
alone the public, what Washington knew about Russia’s moves.