NYT on the situation, part eight

Sun Feb 13 11:05:27 UTC 2022

“I can remember a dozen times when I thought our interests would be
advanced if we just told the world what we knew,” said Michael A. McFaul,
who was the U.S. ambassador to Russia when it annexed Crimea.

Philip M. Breedlove, a retired four-star Air Force general who was NATO’s
supreme allied commander for Europe when Russia invaded Crimea and the
Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, took matters into his own hands
<https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/11/world/europe/satellites-show-russia-mobilizing-near-ukraine-nato-says.html>.
“In the first two invasions of Ukraine — Crimea and Donbas — I used
commercial available imagery to make the facts on the ground clear,” he
said in an interview this week.

An even more important lesson, according to former officials, was Russia’s
interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Critics, including officials from
the Obama administration, have said the United States was too passive in
drawing attention to Russian influence operations.

On Sun, Feb 13, 2022 at 6:03 AM Mark Kohut <mark.kohut at gmail.com> wrote:

> The United States began disclosing Russian maneuvering in early December
> when it declassified intelligence assessments
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html>
>  that predicted Russia could eventually mass 175,000 troops for an
> invasion of Ukraine.
> Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
> ------------------------------
> Card 1 of 5
>
> A brewing conflict. Antagonism
> <https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> between
> Ukraine
> <https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>and
> Russia
> <https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> has
> been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian
> territory, annexing Crimea
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
>  and whipping up a rebellion
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/26/world/europe/russian-artillery-fires-into-ukraine-kiev-says.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> in
> the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/europe/ukraine-cease-fire-negotiated-in-minsk.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
> but peace has been elusive
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
> .
>
> A spike in hostilities. Russia has been gradually building
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>up
> forces
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>
>  near its border with Ukraine
> <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/04/us/us-intelligence-russia-military-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
> and the Kremlin’s messaging toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew
> in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> to
> attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.
>
> Preventing an invasion. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that
> violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/world/europe/russia-putin-belarus-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> in
> Ukraine. Since then, the United States, NATO and Russia have been engaged
> in a whirlwind of diplomacy
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/world/russia-ukraine-minsk-accords.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> aimed
> at averting that outcome.
>
> The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has
> increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat
> to his country
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/europe/putin-nato-russia-ukraine.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>,
> said that Moscow’s growing military presence on the Ukrainian border was a
> response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.
>
> Rising tension. Western countries have tried to maintain a dialogue with
> Moscow
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talks.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc>.
> But the Biden administration warned that the U.S. could throw its weight
> behind Ukraine
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> in
> case of an invasion. France, Germany and Poland also warned Russia of
> consequences
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/world/europe/ukraine-russia-macron-scholz-duda-putin-biden.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc> if
> it launched incursions into Ukraine.
>
>    -
>    -
>    -
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>    -
>
> Russia struck back that month with its own allegations. In a claim
> repeated on social media and Moscow-aligned conspiracy sites, the Russian
> defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said on Dec. 21 that some 120 military
> contractors from the United States had moved “an unidentified chemical
> component” into Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine “to carry out
> provocations.” <http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67402>
>
> While the U.S. allegations of the Russian troop buildup have been verified
> by commercial satellite imagery, there is no evidence for the Russian
> claims, which American officials have called completely false.
>
> Even before the United States began disclosing Russian military plans and
> plots, Ms. Haines decided to share more intelligence with allies, leading
> to her visit to Brussels on Nov. 17. The Biden administration was
> determined not to see a repeat of 2014, when NATO was confused and caught
> by surprise when Russian forces took over Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula
> largely unopposed.
>
> Senior Obama administration officials recalled their frustration when the
> intelligence agencies would not allow the White House to tell NATO, let
> alone the public, what Washington knew about Russia’s moves.
>
>
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