NP - Here's What's at the Heart of the Crisis in Greece

[rich]

I'm not sure who They are either ;)

rich

On Fri, Jan 30, 2015 at 11:00 AM, David Morris <fqmorris at gmail.com> wrote:

> If Greece's debt was mostly or completely forgiven, Greece wouldn't be
> able to get into that same kind of hole again, unless They let/lead it.
>
> On Fri, Jan 30, 2015 at 9:18 AM, rich <richard.romeo at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> nonetheless how do you prevent Greece from sliding back into its old
>> ways. the new gov't wants to inject a significant amount of money into the
>> economy. I'm not sure anyone believes things will change
>>
>> also, we would all agree much that goes on in economics isnt about money
>> but perception. what seems obvious to you and me as to debt levels doesnt
>> make sense to the Germans, Dutch or Finns. I'm not advocating for the tough
>> line against Greece but there are legitimate concerns about countries like
>> Spain and Italy as well as Greece whether they are competent enough to
>> manage their economies presently
>>
>> my burden in life is seeing all sides to things, what can I say
>>
>> rich
>>
>> On Fri, Jan 30, 2015 at 10:10 AM, David Morris <fqmorris at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I think the main points are:
>>>
>>> [?] Greece will NEVER be able to pay back this debt, and will thus be
>>> perpetually under the boot of the Euro Bank.
>>>
>>> [?] The amount of money at stake is a TINY amount relative the the rich
>>> nations that control the Euro bank.
>>>
>>> David Morris
>>>
>>> On Fri, Jan 30, 2015 at 9:00 AM, rich <richard.romeo at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> will they go after the elites and get them to pay their taxes? not that
>>>> this is an issue only in Greece. i think the new gov't has its work cut out
>>>> for it. german banks have a had a hand in all this mess (not only german
>>>> banks tho). they should pay for their stupidity and greed as well
>>>>
>>>> rich
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Jan 29, 2015 at 11:14 AM, David Morris <fqmorris at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> If you're in the market for some interesting commentary on Greece,
>>>>> there have been a couple of good ones recently. The first comes from Paul
>>>>> Krugman, who, among other things, makes a point that often gets missed:
>>>>> Greece is already running a primary surplus. That is, they've cut spending
>>>>> enough over the past few years that their budget would be balanced if
>>>>> it weren't for interest payments on their gigantic debt. What's more, their
>>>>> primary surplus isslated to rise to 4.5 percent in the future:
>>>>> <http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/thinking-about-the-new-greek-crisis/>
>>>>>
>>>>> If Greece were to adhere totally to the previous terms, over the next
>>>>> five years it would make resource transfers of about 20 percent of one
>>>>> year’s GDP. From the point of view of the creditors, that’s a trivial sum.
>>>>> From the point of the Greeks, however, it’s crucial; the difference between
>>>>> a primary surplus of 4.5 percent of GDP and, say, 1.5 percent of GDP for
>>>>> the Greek economy and the welfare of its citizens is huge. The only reason
>>>>> for the creditors to play hardball would be to make Greece an example, to
>>>>> discourage other debtors from trying to negotiate relief.
>>>>>
>>>>> In other words, the EU is demanding that Greece not just balance its
>>>>> budget, but run a large surplus that it will mostly send to large countries
>>>>> for whom it's a trivial sum. For Greece, though, it's a *huge* sum,
>>>>> the difference between years of penury and a return to growth. This is at
>>>>> the heart of the conflict between Greece and the EU.
>>>>>
>>>>> The second commentary comes from Daniel Davies, who makes the point
>>>>> that Greece's gigantic debt doesn't really matter *as debt*. Everyone
>>>>> knows Greece will never be able to pay it back. But if everyone knows this,
>>>>> why are Germany and the rest of the EU so hellbent on refusing to
>>>>> write it off?
>>>>> <http://crookedtimber.org/2015/01/25/greek-games-and-scenarios/>
>>>>>
>>>>> Don’t think of the Greek debt burden, either in cash € terms or as a
>>>>> ratio to GDP, as an economic quantity. It basically isn’t an economically
>>>>> meaningful number any more. *The purpose of its existence is as a
>>>>> political quantity; it’s part of the means by which control is exercised
>>>>> over the Greek budget by the Eurosystem.* The regular rituals of
>>>>> renegotiation of the bailout package, financing of debt maturity peaks and
>>>>> so on, are the way in which the solvent Euroland nations exercise the kind
>>>>> of political control that they feel they need to have if they are going to
>>>>> be fiscally responsible for the bills.
>>>>>
>>>>> ....It is, therefore, totally inimical to the Eurosystem to hold out
>>>>> any hope of the kind of debt writedown that Syriza wants, as opposed to
>>>>> some smaller, cosmetic face value reduction or maturity extension. *The
>>>>> entire reason why Syriza wants to get a major up-front reduction in the
>>>>> debt number is to create political space to execute the rest of their
>>>>> program.* The debt issue and the political issue are the same issue.
>>>>> Syriza understands this, and so does the Eurosystem.
>>>>>
>>>>> In other words, Greece doesn't want to run a large budget surplus.
>>>>> They want to increase government spending in order to dig their way out of
>>>>> their massive economic depression. The rest of the EU wants no such thing.
>>>>> They're afraid that if they let Greece off the hook, then (a) everyone else
>>>>> will want to be let off the hook, and (b) Greece will go right back to its
>>>>> free-spending ways and soon require another bailout. If the price of that
>>>>> is years of pain and unemployment, so be it.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://waste.org/pipermail/pynchon-l/attachments/20150130/e59f6458/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: 4F4.gif
Type: image/gif
Size: 1053 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://waste.org/pipermail/pynchon-l/attachments/20150130/e59f6458/attachment.gif>