(np) Half of people in nine European countries believe UK will vote to leave the EU

[Kai Frederik Lorentzen]

 > With the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership on 23 
June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos reveals that half (49%) 
of Europeans in eight other EU countries believe that Britain will vote 
to leave the EU. The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary 
of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in 
Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.

The survey of between 500 and 1,000 online adults aged under 65 in 
Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden (plus 
Britain and five non-European countries), finds 49%^1 of Europeans think 
Britain will vote to leave the EU.*Between them, the nine EU countries 
surveyed represent around three-quarters of the EU population and 
approximately 80% of its GDP.* This figure varies between a majority in 
Italy and France (60% and 58% respectively) thinking that Britain will 
vote to leave, to 42% in Germany. *In Great Britain itself the number of 
people who believe that the Brexit vote will prevail is in a minority* – 
35% of Britons think that Britain will vote to leave the EU.

Views outside the EU, in North American (Canada and the US) and three 
major Commonwealth countries (India, Australia and South Africa), are 
closer to those of Britons. Across those five countries, 38% think that 
Britain will vote to leave the EU.

*Almost half (45%) of Europeans in the researched countries think their 
own country should hold a referendum on its EU membership. *Again 
support for a referendum varies, though is never lower than four in ten, 
from 38% in Hungary to majorities in Italy and France (58% and 55%).

When asked how they would vote if a referendum on their country’s EU 
membership was held now, *a third of Europeans in the selected countries 
say they would vote for their country to leave the EU.* However, this 
figure differs markedly among the researched EU countries – almost half 
(48%) of Italians and roughly four in ten Frenchmen and Swedes (41% and 
39% respectively) say they would vote “out” in a referendum on the EU in 
their country; in comparison, just one in five (22%) Poles would vote 
for their country to leave the EU if a referendum was organised now.

*The idea that ‘Brexit’ might start a domino effect with other countries 
then leaving the EU is shared by around half (48%) of those in the 
researched EU countries,* and is only slightly less prevalent in 
countries outside the EU (42%). This is a widely held expectation in 
Hungary, Sweden, Italy and Germany, of the European countries. But in 
every country more people agree a domino effect is likely than disagree.*

When asked about the potential impact of Brexit on Britain and the EU, 
people are more likely to think the latter will lose out. *Half of 
Europeans think Brexit would have a negative impact on the EU's economy 
and for the EU's influence on the world stage (51% and 48% 
respectively). In comparison, less than two in five think that Brexit 
would be negative for Britain's economy or position on the world stage 
(36% and 38% respectively). Indeed, in five countries people think 
leaving the EU would actually have a net positive impact on Britain’s 
economy (India, Italy, Poland, South Africa and the United States), 
although only two out of the 14 countries (India and the US) think it 
would have a net positive impact on Britain’s influence on world affairs.

Finally, the survey shows that*four in ten (40%) across the European 
countries surveyed think that there will be a reduced EU by 2020* - 
either with less integration or having been disbanded altogether, 
although only 11% foresee this more dramatic scenario. Four in ten (43%) 
want their countries to work towards reducing the scope of the EU to 
some extent.

However, those who want a more federal Europe are more pessimistic about 
their prospects. While again four in ten (39%) want their countries to 
have a long-term policy of either a more integrated Europe or even a 
single European government (although once more only 15% want this more 
extreme option), on average only two in ten (21%) think there will be a 
more federal Europe by 2020. Rather, 39% believe that in 2020 the EU 
will be the same as today’s version, with the same balance of powers 
between the EU and individual countries (even though only 18% want their 
countries to pursue this status quo option).

*Bobby Duffy*, MD, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, said:

    “The opinion polls are indicating a close race as we approach 23
    June – but this new study shows Brits are the most convinced of all
    that Brexit isn’t going to happen. Having heard so much about
    ‘Project Fear’, and the risks of leaving, it’s interesting to see
    that internationally, the more common view is that the UK would
    suffer less than the EU from the break up. For Europeans, this
    possibly flows from their feelings about their own country’s
    relationship with the EU – they tend to feel there is likely to be a
    ripple effect following the UK vote. The Italians in particular hope
    to have their own opportunity to go to the polls on their EU
    membership – which lends a sense that even if the vote is to stick
    with the status quo in June, it will not be the end of the EU’s
    challenges.”<


https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3731/Half-of-people-in-nine-European-countries-believe-UK-will-vote-to-leave-the-EU.aspx


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